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In the U.S. in
April 2007, Consumer Switch to Quality Slows to Glacial Pace: Rise in Toyota
Sales and Drops in GM and Ford Sales Are Single-Digit Shifts
Auto on Info May 2007
In the U.S. in April 2007, Consumer Switch to Quality Slows to Glacial Pace: Rise in Toyota Sales and Drops in GM and Ford Sales Are Single-Digit Shifts
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise a modest 4% in April 2007, over those of April 2006. Its April U.S. car sales rose 2%, and its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 6%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of April 2007, together with 1998-2002 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2006's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's April 2007 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model and (distinctions) April Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for April 2007 from April 2006 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 210,457 3.7% 816,312 6.7% .90 Scion Division 7,960 -44.2% 36,898 -28.8% N/A xA (R05) 1,454 -52.7% 6,799 -35.2% N/A xB (R05, R07, GW07) 1,173 -77.6% 9,673 -48.1% N/A tC 5,333 -10.2% 20,426 -9.9% N/A Toyota Division 176,502 6.3% 679,928 9.7% .90 Passenger Car 96,279 5.1% 368,842 14.8% N/A Avalon (GS07, GC07) 5,791 -23.9% 25,426 -17.4% .89 Camry (4-cyl.: R05, R06, RV07, 4-cyl. hybrid: GD07) 37,9117 2.2% 143,774 7.3% .889 Corolla (R05, R06, R07, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07) 32,289 -3.3% 120,484 1.7% .91 Prius (T05, T06, T07, R05, R06, R07, RV07, GT07, GD07, GW07, GS07, GC07) 13,056 71.8% 52,738 73.7% .861 Yaris2 (R05, R07, RV07, 5-spd manual: GD07) 7,232 22.6% 26,418 241.7% N/A Light Truck 80,223 7.8% 311,086 4.2% N/A RAV4 (SUV) (T07, R05, R06, R07, 4-cyl.: RV07, RIT) 14,495 13.3% 55,900 17.0% .94 Sienna (minivan) (T07, GS07) 12,773 -0.5% 47,732 -12.1% .81 Highlander (mid-size SUV) (R05, R06, R07, GS07, 4-cyl.: GW07, 6-cyl.: RV07, hybrid: T06, T07) 10,1228 2.4% 41,505 3.5% .991,10 FJ Cruiser (SUV) (R07) 4,587 -12.0% 20,632 144.7% N/A 4Runner (SUV) (R07, 6-cyl.: RV07, GS07) 7,093 -18.3% 31,030 -16.9% .9411 Land Cruiser (large SUV) (R05, R06, RV07, RIT) 191 -18.9% 873 -23.4% .92 Tundra (pickup truck) (R05, R06, 6-cyl.: GW07, GS07, GC07) 14,200 74.1% 43,386 6.7% .9412 Tacoma (pickup truck) (V6: RIT) 14,771 5.1% 61,099 7.1% .9413 Lexus Division 25,995 14.1% 99,486 6.9% .92 Passenger Car 16,317 32.9% 61,510 26.3% N/A ES (T07A, R07, RV07, RIT) 6,544 54.0% 24,594 59.8% .96 LS (T05, R05, R06, R07, RV07, RIT) 3,182 221.9% 11,745 154.4% .98 GS (R06) 1,8876 -12.5% 7,104 -19.7% .963 SC (hardtop convertible) (R05, R06, R07) 341 -36.2% 1,295 -34.0% .851 IS (R05, R06) 4,3634 0.2% 16,772 -6.2% .911 Light Truck 9,678 -7.8% 37,976 -14.4% N/A RX (SUV) (T05, RIT, GS07) 7,8615 -4.2% 30,094 -12.3% .93 GX (SUV) 1,577 -13.6% 6,816 -15.5% N/A LX (large SUV) (R05) 240 -48.7% 1,066 -46.5% .87 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The April sales breakdown of the IS series was unstated. 5The RX 350 had April sales of 6,477 and RX 400h - 1,384. 6The GS 300 had April sales of 1,701, the GS 430 had April sales of 12, and the hybrid GS 450h had April sales of 174, based on Lexus total hybrid sales of 1,558 minus Lexus RX 400h hybrid sales of 1,384. 7The non-hybrid Camry had April sales of 33,501 and the Camry hybrid - 4,410. 8The non-hybrid Highlander had April sales of 7,728 and the Highlander hybrid - 2,394. 9The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the 4-cylinder Camry is .88, that for the Camry Solara is .90, and that for the V6 Camry is unavailable. 10The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Highlander is .98. 11This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank is for the V6 4Runner. 12The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Tundra is .86. 13This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V6 Tacoma is .93. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2006's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. T05 denotes a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick, T05 - a CR 2005 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T06 - a CR 2006 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T07 - a CR 2007 Top Pick in the Green Car category, T05A - a CR 2005 Top Pick alternate, T06A - a CR 2006 Top Pick alternate, and T07A - a CR 2007 Top Pick alternate. R05 denotes that Consumer Reports accorded the 2005 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, R06 - that CR accorded the 2006 model its highest predicted short-term reliability, and R07 - that CR accorded the 2007 model its highest predicted short-term reliability. RV07 denotes a best model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts. RIT denotes a top-ten model by the 2007 Reliability Index. GT07 denotes that it is one of two current models that have reduced exhaust emissions sufficiently to receive a permit to use the car pool lanes on Arizona's freeways. (See "Cleaning Arizona Air: The Exclusive Three," Auto on Info, March 2007.) GD07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is on GreenerCars.com's top dozen green cars. GW07 denotes that the model, or specified edition of the model, is best in category on global warming performance, by the Union of Concerned Scientists, GS07 denotes best in category on smog performance, and GC07 denotes best in category on combined environmental performance. (See "By Yet Another Quality Measure, Toyota and Honda Are Best and GM and DaimlerChrysler - Worst: The UCS 2007 Environmental Report," Auto on Info, April 2007.) To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in April 2007 over April 2006 were the Lexus LS 460, up 221.9% to 3,182, the Toyota Tundra large pickup truck, up 74.1% to 14,200, the original hybrid Toyota Prius, up 71.8% to 13,056, the Lexus ES 350, up 54.0% to 6,544, the Toyota Yaris, up 22.6% to 7,232, the Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle, up 13.3% to 14,495, and the Toyota Tacoma small pickup truck, up 5.1% to 14,771.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in April 2007 Lexus LS 460 Toyota Tundra Toyota Prius Lexus ES 350 Toyota Yaris Toyota RAV4 Toyota Tacoma The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of either the 2006 models (highlighted) or the 2007 models (not highlighted). The Toyota Prius, up 71.8% for the month, is Toyota's original gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2005 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2006 Top Pick (green car category), a CR 2007 Top Pick (green car category), a recipient of a CR's 2007 "Most Reliable" rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest ownership satisfaction rating for predicted short-term satisfaction, a recipient of a CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a UCS 2007 Best on Global Warming Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Smog Performance in midsize car category, a UCS 2007 Best on Combined Environmental Performance in midsize car category, one of Arizona's two "green cars" for car pool lane usage, and No. 2 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen.
The likelihood of finding a 2007 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 88.7% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through April 2007 were made in North America, 80.5% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through April 2007 were made in North America, and 86.0% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. through April 2007 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .88, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales drop 2% to 126,419. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in April 2007 over April 2006 were the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, a CR 2007 All-Around-Competence Quick Pick, a 2007 CR Top Pick runner-up, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest rating for predicted short-term ownership satisfaction, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating by road test performance, and a recipient of CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating, a best motor vehicle model by CR's 2007 Reliability Verdicts, a top ten by the 2007 Reliability Index), up 39.4% to 17,379, and the Honda Fit small car (a 2007 CR Top Pick and Auto on Info's Top Car Pick of 2007, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest rating for predicted short-term reliability, a recipient of CR's 2007 highest rating for predicted short-term ownership satisfaction, a recipient of CR's 2007 second-highest accident avoidance rating by road test performance, and a recipient of CR's 2007 highest crash protection rating; also, the manual transmission edition is No. 8 on GreenerCars.com's greenest dozen), up 13.1% to 3,958.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in April 2007 Honda CR-V Honda Fit The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2007 models. Through April 2007, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 1,855 vehicles, or 3.9%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 9,051 vehicles, or 16.2%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1998-2002 RPA of .94 and a CR 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .965 and in contrast to the Toyota Sienna's 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .825) and Consumer Reports accords its 2007 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (in contrast to Sienna's above average), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, only time will tell what the 2007 Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1998-2002 RPA of .75, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales fall 7%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .73, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales tumble 11%. Its car sales fell 7% and its light truck sales fell 16%. Sales by its Infiniti division, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .87, rose 12%; sales of Infiniti cars rose 15% and sales of Infiniti SUVs rose 4%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .65, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales rise 2%.
Overall, the April 2007 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were okay. Toyota set rose 4%, Mazda sales rose 2%, and Infiniti sales rose 12%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, saw April 2007 sales drop a modest 2% (although hefty sales incentives remained in place). Only Buick sales were a disaster - down 20.3%.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .40, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales rise 10%, with reportedly the heftiest of Big Three incentives, although analysts disagreed on the matter. Its car sales fell 13%, but its light truck sales rose 20%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .48, saw its April 2007 U.S. auto sales drop a relatively modest 6%.
This month's slowing of the U.S. consumer shift to quality and out of Big Three products may reflect a general principle: As the Big Three's customer base shrinks, what remains should be, in the main, particularly untalented folks. For such, information should be slow to trickle in and difficult to understand and misinformation should be quick to confuse. And confusion, likely to be well fertilized with a flood of misinformation, should prompt a strong preference for, and renewed trust in, repetitive behavior. Such should well thwart the decline in Big Three sales and return it to the rather glacial change of the 1990s.
The 2007 U.S. market shares of the Reliable Two, the Big Three, Nissan, and Hyundai at the end of April changed little from those at the end of March. Ford's edged up a notch, and that's it. The following table provides the current year-to-date U.S. market shares, as well as historical shares and the estimated natural market shares, of this group of seven.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, and Year-to-Date 2007, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 YTD 2007 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .16 .23 .07 .09 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06
