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In the U.S. in
February 2007, Consumer Gait to Quality Slows to a More Historical Pace:
Reliable Two Set New February Sales Records, Ford and Chrysler Sales Tumble, and
GM Inches Out Gain with Hefty Incentives
Auto on Info March 2007
In the U.S. in February 2007, Consumer Gait to Quality Slows to a More Historical Pace: Reliable Two Set New February Sales Records, Ford and Chrysler Sales Tumble, and GM Inches Out Gain with Hefty Incentives
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 12% in February 2007, over those of February 2006, to set a new February sales record. Its February U.S. car sales rose 21%, and its U.S. light truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 2%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of February 2007, together with 1998-2002 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2006's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: Toyota Motor Corporation's February 2007 U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, TMC's Year-to-Date U.S. Unit Sales and Daily-Selling-Rate Percentage Changes, and 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manu-facturer Divi-sion Type of Vehicle Model February Unit Sales Volume Percent-age Change for February 2007 from February 2006 Year-to-Date Unit Sales Volume Year-to-Date Percent-age Change 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 187,330 12.2% 363,180 8.6% .90 Scion Division 8,956 -21.5% 17,960 -20.4% N/A xA 1,722 -24.6% 3,480 -21.5% N/A xB 2,868 -29.6% 5,701 -29.4% N/A tC 4,366 -13.5% 8,779 -12.7% N/A Toyota Division 155,856 16.0% 300,584 11.3% .90 Passenger Car 83,982 27.4% 161,660 19.2% N/A Avalon 5,583 -19.1% 12,112 -14.3% .89 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 32,1487 17.5% 63,609 13.7% .889 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 28,321 12.9% 53,840 5.5% .91 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 12,227 86.8% 20,526 41.6% .861 Yaris 5,702 N/A 11,572 N/A N/A Light Truck 71,874 4.9% 138,924 3.2% N/A RAV41,1r,R6 (SUV) 11,643 5.2% 23,568 12.9% .94 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 11,039 -10.5% 21,888 -11.0% .81 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (mid-size SUV) 9,3688 3.7% 19,690 8.5% .991,10 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 5,040 N/A 9,988 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 7,555 -12.3% 14,885 -14.9% .9411 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (large SUV) 226 -23.9% 460 -23.2% .92 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 9,669 -8.5% 15,990 -21.8% .9412 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 15,022 9.4% 28,085 5.2% .9413 Lexus Division 22,518 6.6% 44,636 7.2% .92 Passenger Car 13,491 27.1% 27,065 22.8% N/A ES 3501 5,286 64.0% 10,606 58.5% .962 LS 460*^,1r,1s,R6 2,423 138.7% 5,429 141.2% .982 GS 300R6 1,388 -21.6% 2,756 -22.2% .962,3 GS 430 / 450h 1756 -37.1% 358 -37.0% .962,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 282 -36.8% 584 -32.8% .851,2 IS 250 / 350 3,9374 1.4% 7,332 -9.7% .911,2 Light Truck 9,027 -14.1% 17,571 -10.3% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 7,0865 -14.1% 13,630 -7.5% .932 GX 4701s (SUV) 1,672 -7.8% 3,385 -11.8% N/A LX 470 (large SUV) 269 -40.5% 556 -45.3% .872 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The February sales breakdown of the IS series was unstated. 5The RX 350 had February sales of 5,837 and RX 400h - 1,249. 6The non-hybrid GS 430 had February sales of 15 and the hybrid GS 450h had February sales of 160, based on Lexus total hybrid sales of 1,409 minus Lexus RX 400h hybrid sales of 1,249. 7The non-hybrid Camry had February sales of 28,816 and the Camry hybrid - 3,332. 8The non-hybrid Highlander had February sales of 7,476 and the Highlander hybrid - 1,892. 9The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the 4-cylinder Camry is .88, that for the Camry Solara is .90, and that for the V6 Camry is unavailable. 10The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Highlander is .98. 11This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank is for the V6 4Runner. 12The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Tundra is .86. 13This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V6 Tacoma is .93. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2006's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, and the Lexus IS300. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Minivan Quick Pick. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in February 2007 over February 2006 were the Lexus LS 460, up 138.7% to 2,423, the Lexus ES 350, up 64.0% to 5,286, the original hybrid Toyota Prius, up 86.8% to 12,227, the Toyota Camry, up 17.5% to 32,148, the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 12.9% to 28,321, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 9.4% to 15,022, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle, up 5.2% to 11,643.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in February 2007 Lexus LS 460 Lexus ES 350 Toyota Prius Toyota Camry Solara Toyota Camry XLE Toyota Camry hybrid Toyota Corolla Toyota Tacoma Toyota RAV4 The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2006 models. The Toyota Prius, up 86.8% for the month, is Toyota's original gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the post-2004 editions is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the post-2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the post-2004 editions of the Prius are a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, the Prius is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, a CR 2005 Top Pick, a recipient of a Consumer Reports 2006 "Most Reliable" rating, a CR 2007 Fuel-Economy Quick Pick, and a recipient of a Consumer Reports 2007 "Most Reliable" rating.
The Toyota Corolla, up 12.9% for the month, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability (see "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Site Manager's 1984 Corolla Passes 500,000 Mark," Auto on Info, October 2006), and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
The likelihood of finding a 2007 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 89.7% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through February 2007 were made in North America, 75.2% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through February 2007 were made in North America, and 77.4% of the RX350s sold in the U.S. through February 2007 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry, or Lexus RX350 is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .88, saw its February 2007 U.S. auto sales rise 3% to 110,026 to set a new February sales record. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in February 2007 over February 2006 were the non-hybrid Honda Accord (a CR 2006 Top Pick, with the 2006 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions All-Around Quick Picks, with the 2007 EX 4-cylinder and 6-cylinder editions Well-Rounded Quick Picks, and with quite a number of additional distinctions), up 22.7% to 30,058, the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick and a CR 2007 All-Around-Competence Quick Pick), up 31.0% to 13,524, and the Honda Civic Hybrid (with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the second-highest category, and a CR 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category), up 8.1% to 1,924.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in February 2007 Honda Accord Honda CR-V Honda Civic Hybrid The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2006 models. In February 2007, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 1,337 vehicles, or 12.1%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 1,881 vehicles, or 16.2%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1998-2002 RPA of .94 and a CR 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .965 and in contrast to the Toyota Sienna's 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .825) and Consumer Reports accords its 2007 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (in contrast to Sienna's above average), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
The following table provides a comparison of those Toyota and Honda family sedans and small SUVs that were rated by Consumer Reports as Quick Picks based on two or more years of reliability history.
With regard to the two differing miles per gallon guides in the table above, one visitor's reported experience suggests that the EPA estimates may be closer to the mark than those achieved by CR's drivers; however, the difference may reflect differing driving styles in different parts of North America.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1998-2002 RPA of .75, saw its February 2007 U.S. auto sales fall 6%.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .73, saw its February 2007 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Its car sales rose 10%, but its light truck sales fell 8%. Sales by its Infiniti division, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .87, rose 5%; sales of Infiniti cars rose 9%, but sales of Infiniti SUVs fell 5%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .65, saw its February 2007 U.S. auto sales fall 6%.
Overall, the February 2007 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were solid. Toyota and Honda set February sales records, and Nissan sales rose 1% and sales by Nissan's Infiniti division rose 5%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, poured on the incentives with the result that its unit sales rose 4%. February's increase in sales provides strong evidence that there remains a sizable group of U.S. consumers who view GM products as having a value of something considerably in excess of nothing. This surely is good news for GM executives, GM shareholders, and those who use the ownership of a GM vehicle as an index of functional inconsequentiality, provided that GM is selling its products at prices that will keep it in business for a number of years.
The bad news is that GM's modest success in moving vehicles off dealer lots has prompted Chrysler and Ford, its larger competitors at the lower end of the spectrum, to pour on the incentives as well. See http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070302/AUTO01/703020360.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .40, saw its February 2007 U.S. auto sales drop 8%. Its car sales plunged 13% and its light truck sales fell 7%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .48<
