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In
the U.S. in 2006, Consumers Quicken Their Pace to Quality: Toyota Sales
Soar and Honda Sales Rise as Big Three Sales Plunge
Auto on Info January 2007
In the U.S. in 2006, Consumers Quicken Their Pace to Quality: Toyota Sales Soar and Honda Sales Rise as Big Three Sales Plunge
By James B. Bleeker
The 2006 U.S. auto sales of Toyota Motor Corporation (with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .90) rose 12% to set an eleventh consecutive annual sales record. For comparison, its 2005 auto sales rose 10%. (Note that for annual sales percentage changes Auto on Info does not take account of a differing number of selling days between years, as the rational for a daily-selling-rate correction seems not applicable for such a larger time period. Consequently, the percentages in this article differ some from those published by the manufacturers.)
Its U.S. car sales rose 13% in 2006 (17% in 2005), and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 12% in 2006 (2% in 2005). The Scion division car sales were up 10.6% to 173,034, the Toyota division car sales were up 12.3% to 1,102,085, and the Lexus division car sales were up 21.0% to 183,037. The Toyota division truck sales were up 15.3% to 944,971 and the Lexus division truck sales were down 8.1% to 139,937.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in 2006, together with 1998-2002 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2006's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for 2006 from 2005 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 2,542,524 12.5% .90 Scion Division 173,034 10.6% N/A xA 32,603 16.3% N/A xB 61,306 13.5% N/A tC 79,125 6.3% N/A Toyota Division 2,047,056 13.7% .90 Passenger Car 1,102,085 12.3% N/A Avalon 88,938 -6.7% .89 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 448,4457 3.9% .889 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 387,388 13.5% .91 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 106,971 -0.9% .861 Yaris 70,308 N/A N/A Light Truck 944,971 15.3% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 152,047 115.6% .94 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 163,269 1.2% .81 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (mid-size SUV) 129,7948 -5.5% .991,10 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 56,225 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 103,086 -0.7% .9411 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (large SUV) 3,376 -30.7% .92 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 124,508 -1.6% .9412 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 178,351 5.6% .9413 Lexus Division 322,434 6.5% .92 Passenger Car 183,037 21.0% N/A ES 3501 75,987 12.4% .962 LS 430/460*^,1r,1s,R6 19,546 -24.9% .982 GS 300R6 23,665 -14.9% .962,3 GS 430 / 450h 3,7256 -34.1% .962,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 5,847 -30.1% .851,2 IS 250 / 350 54,2674 243.7% .911,2 Light Truck 139,397 -8.1% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 108,3485 -0.4% .932 GX 4701s (SUV) 25,454 -25.9% N/A LX 470 (large SUV) 5,595 -34.6% .872 Note: Percentage changes are daily selling rate percentage changes from previous year's version of the model, and Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. 4The 2006 sales breakdown of the IS series was unstated. 5The 2006 sales breakdown of the non-hybrid RX 350 and the hybrid RX 400h was unstated. 6The 2006 sales breakdown of the non-hybrid GS 430 and the hybrid GS 450h was unstated. 7The 2006 sales breakdown of the non-hybrid Camry and the Camry hybrid was unstated. 8The 2006 sales breakdown of the non-hybrid Highlander and the Highlander hybrid was unstated. 9The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the 4-cylinder Camry is .88, that for the Camry Solara is .90, and that for the V6 Camry is unavailable. 10The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Highlander is .98. 11This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank is for the V6 4Runner. 12The 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V8 Tundra is .86. 13This 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank for the V6 Tacoma is .93. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2006's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Minivan Quick Pick. To view a table providing Toyota's models on Consumer Reports' list of 2007 models having the highest predicted short-term reliability, go to "By CR's Predicted Short-Term Reliability for Model Year 2007, Toyota and Honda Dominate Best and GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler Dominate Worst, per Detroit News Table," Auto on Info, November 2006. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in 2006 over 2005 were the Lexus IS 250 / 350, up 243.7% to 54,267, the Toyota RAV4 small sport-utility vehicle, up 115.6% to 152,047, the Scion xA, up 16.3% to 32,603, the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 13.5% to 387,388, the Scion xB, up 13.5% to 61,306, the Lexus ES 350, up 12.4% to 75,987, the Scion tC, up 6.3% to 79,125, and the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 5.6% to 178,351.
The following chart depicts the percentage changes in sales for these hottest sellers.
The following table depicts the vehicles and has links to on-site review pages.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in 2006 Lexus IS 350 Toyota RAV4 Scion xA Toyota Corolla Scion xB Lexus ES 350 Scion tC Toyota Tacoma The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to on-site review pages of the 2006 models. The fact that the sales of the Prius, the globally popular hybrid, were down suggests that Toyota's 2006 U.S. sales may have been constrained by high global demand and limited production capacity.
The Toyota Corolla, up 13.5% in 2006, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability (see "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005 and "Site Manager's 1984 Corolla Passes 500,000 Mark," Auto on Info, October 2006), and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 in 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 65.7%.
The likelihood of finding a 2007 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is not good; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 86.5% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. in 2006 were made in North America and 80.9% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. in 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2007 Lexus RX are more fortunate, as it appears that North American produced RXs account for only about two-thirds of the U.S. sold RXs. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2007 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability. Currently, all Yaris sold in the U.S. are made abroad; however, Toyota plans North American production of this model, so it may behoove U.S. consumers eyeing the Yaris to buy it within the next two years.
The 2006 U.S. auto sales of Honda Motor Company (with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .88) rose 3.2% to set a tenth consecutive annual sales record. Car sales by its Honda division rose 2.9% to 706,012 and car sales by its Acura division fell 9.0% to 137,938. Truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales by its Honda division rose 6.3% to 602,123 and truck sales by its Acura division rose 9.2% to 63,285.
Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in 2006 over 2005 were the Honda Civic hybrid (a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, and a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the second-highest category), up 20.8% to 31,253, the Honda Ridgeline pickup truck (a CR 2006 Top Pick, a CR 2006 All-Around-Use Pickup-Truck Quick Pick, with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category and with perfect scores on NHTSA's crashworthiness tests), up 17.8% to 50,193, the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle (with a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 comfort-versatility-and-snow-traction Quick Pick, with the 2006 EX edition accorded a CR short-term predicted reliability in the highest category and a CR crash protection rating in the highest category), up 13.2% to 170,028, the Acura TSX sport utility vehicle (too new to have a 1998-2002 RPA, but the 2006 Acura TSX was a 2006 Consumer Reports Sporty-Driving, Agility, and Fun Sedan Quick Pick and had a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second-highest category, a CR 2006 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category, and a CR 2006 accident avoidance rating in the highest category), up 9.1% to 38,035, and the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick, and a CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Pick, and with the Pilot EX-L edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 6.1% to 152,154.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid Honda Ridgeline Honda CR-V Acura TSX Honda Pilot The above photos are of the 2007 models and the above links are to onsite review pages of the 2006 models. In 2006, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 14,650 vehicles, or 9.0%, and the Honda CR-V small sport-utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 17,981 vehicles, or 11.8%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1998-2002 RPA of .97 and a CR 2006 and 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1998-2002 RPA of .94 and a CR 2006 and 2007 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .965 and in contrast to the Toyota Sienna's 1999-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .825) and Consumer Reports accords its 2007 model year a predicted short-term reliability rating of only average (in contrast, CR accords the 2007 Sienna its highest predicted short-term reliability rating), the average rating being something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-American-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1998-2002 RPA of .75, saw its 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 2.4% to set a fourth consecutive annual sales record.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 Reliability Percentrank average of .73, saw its 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 5.3%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .65, saw its 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 4.0%.
Overall, the 2006 U.S. sales by the auto manufacturers of higher quality products were solid. Four of the five showed 2006 sales gains - Toyota up 12%, Mazda up 4%, Honda up 3%, and Subaru up 2%.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, saw its 2006 sales plunge 9%. Although GM's end-of-year 2006 red tag sale reduced inventory (see "U.S. Consumer Shift to Quality Outpaces Big Three Price and Production Cuts; Big 3 Inventories Get Big, But How Big? Three for One, Anyone?," Auto on Info, October 2006), it was insufficient to stop sales erosion (see "True Value Estimates of GM's 2007 Vehicles," Auto on Info, November 2006).
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .40, saw its 2006 U.S. auto sales plunge 7%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1998-2002 RPA of .48, saw its 2006 U.S. auto sales plunge 8% from last December's post-fire-sale sales.
The following chart depicts the U.S. consumer shift to quality.
The following table gives the progress of each major manufacturer toward its natural market share estimate.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .15 .23 .08 .08 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .16 .07 -.09 -.10 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .13 .00 -.13 -.02 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
From the table it may be seen that Ford is now more than halfway to its estimated natural market share of .07.
To view site manager's 2007 U.S. auto market share predictions, click here.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai (1998-2002 RPA of .41) clobbered GM (1998-2002 RPA of .32) in 2006; Hyundai's sales rose 0.1% as GM's plunged 8.8%.
U.S. 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, fell 5.2%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1998-2002 RPA of .32, fell 6.3%.
In the niche markets, Porsche 2006 U.S. auto sales rose 7.2%, BMW sales rose 2.1%, and M
