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J.D. Power Study: Another Exercise in Uselessness or a Little Value Gleaned?
Auto on Info August 2006
Another J.D. Power Study: Another Exercise in Uselessness or a Little Value Gleaned?
By James B. Bleeker
On August 9, 2006, J.D. Power & Associates released compiled results from its survey of 3-year-old vehicles. As usual, we compare these results with those of Consumer Reports to see what, if any, value the former may hold. This year we do two such comparisons. In addition, we do a third comparison discussed below.
The first comparison is between CR's average problem rate per motor vehicle line (or marque) based on reported problems in a vehicle's 5th year of existence and J.D. Power's average complaint rate per motor vehicle line (or marque) based on reported complaints in the first three years of a vehicle's existence. Because of the age difference, CR data is for model year 2001 and J.D. Power data is for model year 2003. It should be noted that for this comparison, CR values must be read from a chart, so a small - or very, very small - error may arise. As always, CR data cover "serious problems" while J.D. Power data cover complaints generally, which will sometimes be trivial, or particularly trivial (for example, in prior years owners of Hummers complained about their mileage per gallon of gas), and sometimes serious.
For the first comparison, we divide the CR problem rate of each vehicle line by the greatest problem rate for all lines and the J.D. Power complaint rate of each vehicle line by the greatest J.D. Power complaint rate. This puts all CR values between 0 and 1 and similarly for J.D. Power values. We then graph the values and insert the regression line. The closer this line is to an upward sloping 45-degree diagonal line, the more J.D. Power results correspond to Consumer Reports results; the closer this line is to a horizontal line, the less J.D. Power results measure what Consumer Reports deems useful of measurement. We have:
From the chart, we see that there is a little bit of a relationship, but not much, meaning that J.D. Power surveys do little in capturing the reliability measured by Consumer Reports, i.e., there is little relationship between complaints and serious problems, or put differently, there is little relationship between complaints and what likely most people would view as one important measure of quality. Furthermore, although in both surveys the Lexus line has the fewest complaints/problems, the J.D. Power survey results greatly understate the excellence of the Lexus line relative to Consumer Reports' measure of reliability.
The second comparison is between CR's rank of automobile lines based on an average of reliability scores for the 3 most years as of the survey date (2003, 2004, and 2005) and J.D. Power's rank of automobile lines based on infrequency of complaints in the first 3 years of sampled 2003 vehicles. This second comparison should provide a clue as to whether J.D. Power's ranks provide much predictive reliability value.
Similar to what we did above, we divide each rank by the number of total motor vehicle lines common to both surveys; this puts all resulting values again between 0 and 1. We follow traditional rank order, meaning that the best is in first place; this puts the best vehicle line of both sets of survey results - the Lexus - in the bottom left corner of our chart. We again insert a regression line to help with a visual depiction of the relationship, or lack thereof, between the two rankings. We have:
From the chart, we can see that the regression line is far closer to a horizontal line with a slope of 0 than a diagonal line with a slope of 1. (Those interested in applying a little bit of their high school algebra course may use the chart to compute the actual slope.) Consequently, there is little relationship between CR's early reliability rankings and J.D. Power's infrequency-of-complaint rankings.
Another valuable index on the usefulness of the J.D. Power survey results, or lack thereof, may be the explanation a Chrysler spokesman gave for the reduced number of complaints for Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep products. The Wall Street Journal reports that Chrysler spokesman Sam Locricchio attributed the reduced number of complaints to better placement of knobs and controls and use of less plastic-like finishes1, which in today's psychology and marketing jargon may be termed more affective improvements than effective improvements.
Nonetheless, for those interested in high reliability and good knob placement, the following list provides those lines that hold a top-ten CR short-term reliability ranking (based on model years 2003, 2004, and 2005), a top-ten CR little-bit-longer reliability ranking (based on model year 2001), and a top-ten J.D. Power 3-year infrequency-of-complaint ranking (based on model year 2003), together with the average rank.
Motor Vehicle Lines Receiving Top-Ten Rankings in CR's 3-Year Reliability List, CR's 5th Year Reliability List, and J.D. Power's 3-Year Infrequency-of-Complaint List Average Rank Motor Vehicle Line 1 Toyota Motor Corporation's Lexus line 4 Toyota Motor Corporation's Toyota line 4 Honda Motor Company's Honda line 5 Honda Motor Company's Acura line For the reliability of specific models, see Table I-MVRP. For those interested in 20-or-more-year durability as well, see "Toyota Overwhelmingly Dominates Another Measure of Durability," Auto on Info, January 2006, "Site Manager Replaces Corolla Transmission: 1984 Torque Converter Expires at 478,943 Miles," Auto on Info, June 2005, and Durability Page No. 5.
Next, we compare this year's J.D. Power 3-year complaint-frequency results with last year's J.D. Power 3-year complaint-frequency results. We do this with the thought that if the results measure something much more than whimsy and reflect something much more than randomness, there will likely be a considerable correlation. This proposition is buttressed by the relatively small change in reliability stature over time (see Chart of the Great Gaps), the scantness of change most likely resulting from things deeply institutional, i.e., resulting from the attitudes, values, standards, and procedures found in every aspect and department of an auto manufacturer's business. As above, we put complaint frequencies between the values of 0 and 1. We have:
From the above chart, we see substantial correlation; consequently, the J.D. Power complaint survey measures something, although that something may be of small value to the consumer relative to short-term reliability, mid-term reliability, long-term reliability, and durability.
1 "U.S. Cars Slip in Durability Study," Jennifer Saranow, The Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2006, p. D2
Source for J.D. Power's 2006 complaint frequencies: "U.S. Cars Slip in Durability Study," Jennifer Saranow, The Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2006, pp. D1, D2 (It is interesting to note that the Wall Street Journal terms the J.D. Power 3-year study a "durability study," but this may simply be reflective of a brazen, unmitigated contempt for the average U.S. consumer, but not necessarily by the journalist or the Journal.)
Source for J.D. Power's 2005 complaint frequencies: "Big Three Quality Gains on Rivals," Ed Garsten, The Detroit News, June 30, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0506/30/B01-232784.htm (The Detroit News also refers to the J.D. Power 3-year survey as a study of "long-term vehicle durability," but maybe for a Big Three vehicle it is.)
Source for CR 2006 5th-year reliability and problem frequency: "5-Year Checkup: How Makes Compare," Consumer Reports, April 2006, p. 15
Source for CR 2006 most-recent-3-year-reliability and problem frequency: "How Makes Compare," Consumer Reports, April 2006, p. 17
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