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the U.S. in April 2006, Consumer Shift to Quality Keeps Its Pace: Reliable Two
Sales Rise and Set Records; Big Three Sales Drop, but Drop Appears
Sustainable without Multiple Use of Bankruptcy Filings
Auto on Info May 2006
In the U.S. in April 2006, Consumer Shift to Quality Keeps Its Pace: Reliable Two Sales Rise and Set Records; Big Three Sales Drop, but Drop Appears Sustainable without Multiple Use of Bankruptcy Filings
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 9% in April 2006, over those of April 2005, to set a new monthly sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 7%, and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 11%. Year to date, Toyota's U.S. cars sales are up 3% and its truck sales are up 11%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of April 2006, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among December 2005's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: April 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for April 2006 from April 2005 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 219,965 8.5% .90 Scion Division 15,444 1.5% N/A xA 3,331 29.5% N/A xB 5,678 -1.8% N/A tC 6,435 -6.3% N/A Toyota Division 179,842 10.8% .90 Passenger Car 99,226 7.1% N/A Avalon 8,239 -7.3% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 40,203 3.3% .90 Corolla1r,R6,2006A 36,155 9.3% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 8,234 -24.6% .851 Yari 6,393 N/A N/A Light Truck 80,616 15.6% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 13,854 106.4% .93 Sienna*,1s,1f,2006A (minivan) 13,912 7.2% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6,2006A (SUV) 10,712 -13.7% .981 FJ Cruiser (SUV) 5,649 N/A N/A 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 9,406 14.7% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 255 -37.7% .91 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 8,837 -16.1% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 15,220 4.3% .94 Lexus Division 24,679 -1.7% .92 Passenger Car 13,304 11.2% N/A ES 3301 4,603 -14.6% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 1,017 -53.6% .972 GS 300R6 1,963 -23.3% .933 GS 430 / 450h 373 -28.4% .932,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 579 -22.7% N/A IS 250 / 350 4,715 978.5% .901,2 Light Truck 11,375 -13.4% N/A RX 350*^,1,1s,2006A and 400hR6,2006A (SUV) 8,890 -9.2% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 1,978 -27.7% N/A LX 470 507 -15.6% .852 Note: Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in December 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. A gold 2006A (2006A) indicates that the 2006 edition is a CR top-of-vehicle-category Quick Pick. In particular, the 2006 Toyota Corolla is a CR 2006 All-Around Competence and Safety Quick Pick, the 2006 Toyota V6 and Hybrid Highlander and the 2006 Lexus RX400h/RX350 are CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Picks, and the 2006 Toyota Sienna is a CR 2006 Quick Pick. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in April 2006 over April 2005 were the Lexus IS 250 / 350, up 978.5% to 4,715, the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle, up 106.4% to 13,854, the Scion xA, up 29.5% to 3,331, the Toyota 4Runner midsize sport utility vehicle, up 14.7% to 9,406, the legendary Toyota Corolla, up 9.3% to 36,155, and the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 7.2% to 13,912.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in April 2006 2006 Lexus IS 350 2006 Toyota RAV4 2006 Scion xA (No Icon Available) 2006 Toyota 4Runner 2006 Toyota Corolla 2006 Toyota Sienna Highlighted cells provide links to onsite review pages for the 2006 models; other links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 1.5% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Corolla, up 9.3% for the month, is an internationally renowned 40-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through April 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 74.7%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 88.5% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through April 2006 were made in North America and 87.7% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through April 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX 350 are more fortunate, as it appears from the sales numbers that North American production of this most recent model has not yet commenced. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon are without any hope, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its April 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 7% to 139,124 to set a new April sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 5% and its U.S. truck sales rose 9%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in April 2006 over April 2005 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Honda Ridgeline pickup truck (a CR 2006 Top Pick), up 43.6% to 4,652, the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick, and a CR 2006 Comfort, Versatility, and Snow Traction Quick Pick, and with the Pilot EX-L edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 23.3% to 12,566, the Acura TSX (a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 22.0% to 3,911, the Acura TL (1997-2001 RPA of .91 and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2006 Top Pick), up 14.9% to 7,975, and the Honda Odyssey minivan (1997-2001 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability only in the middle category, also a CR 2005 and 2006 Top Pick and an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal), up 5.2% to 16,850.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in April 2006 2006 Ridgeline 2006 Honda Pilot 2006 Acura TSX 2006 Acura TL 2006 Honda Odyssey The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Through April 2006, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 1,752 vehicles, or 3.2%, and the Toyota RAV4 sport utility vehicle outsold the Honda CR-V by 1,942 vehicles, or 4.2%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1997-2001 RPA of .99 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1997-2001 RPA of .93 and a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .975) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (rather matching its early 2002 Reliability Percentrank of .53), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-American-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, saw its U.S. auto sales fall 2% in April 2006. Its U.S. car sales fell 3%, but its U.S. truck sales rose 1%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in April 2006 over April 2005 were the Nissan Frontier pickup truck (1997-2001 RPA of .81 and a CR 2006 All-Around Use Quick Pick, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability of only average), up 38.8% to 7,573, the Nissan Murano midsize sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the Murano SL edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 16.3% to 6,879, the Nissan Sentra sedan (1997-2001 RPA of .66, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 13.1% to 12,242, the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category), up 9.7% to 2,417, the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle (1997-2001 RPA of .85, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability of only average), up 6.1% to 5,702, and the Nissan 350Z roadster (with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability of only average), up 4.9% to 2,811.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in April 2006 2005 Nissan Frontier 2006 Nissan Murano 2006 Nissan Sentra 2006 Infiniti M45 2006 Nissan Pathfinder 2006 Nissan 350Z Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its April 2006 U.S. auto sales fall a small fraction of 1%. Its car sales rose a small fraction of 1%, but its truck sales fell 1%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its April 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 4%. Its car sales rose 1%, but its truck sales rose 15%.
In summary, the April 2006 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Honda set an April record and sales by Toyota set a record for all months.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its April 2006 sales fall 7%. Such a small decline suggests that little information trickles into the bottom third of the U.S. population and that GM may edge to a 4% U.S. market share without multiple Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its April 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 4%, despite the use of hefty incentives.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its April 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 3%.
Honda's year-to-date U.S. market share rose back up a notch; Ford's fell back down a notch. The following table provides the summary.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .14 .23 .09 .07 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .16 .09 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .17 .07 -.10 -.09 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM took another clobbering in April 2006; Hyundai's sales advanced 4% as GM's fell 7%.
U.S. April 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1997-2001 RPA of .43, rose 3%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1997-2001 RPA of .29, fell 6%.
In the niche markets, Porsche April 2006 U.S. auto sales rose 13%, BMW sales rose 17%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 17%. Old line European nobility has U.S. fealty.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for April 2006 over April 2005 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 26 selling days in April 2006 and 27 in April 2005.
Source for April 2006 auto manufacturer sales data: "April 2006 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, May 2, 2006, available at mlive.com's News Flash section (Note that in this table percentage changes are not adjusted for the differing number of selling days in April of 2006 and April of 2005. This is a first for the Associated Press, for so long as site manager has been following AP's auto sales data summary.)
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports April Sales," May 2, 2006, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2006050220151
Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Announces April Sales," May 2, 2006, available at http://www.nissannews.com/corporate/news/current/20060502101829.shtml
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Record April Sales" May 2, 2006, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2006050248226&mime=asc
Source for Subaru Impreza sales: www.media.subaru.com
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for December 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2006, p. D4 (See "By WSJ's Lot-Stay Time, Made-in-Japan TMC Models Are Top 5 of Hottest 10," Auto on Info, January 2006.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
Sources for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability ratings of "most reliable": "Asian Auto Brands' Reliability Uneven," Christine Tierney, Detroit News, October 27, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/27/C01-362825.htm and "Asian Vehicles Rank Low in Survey," Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today at Detroit Free Press, October 27, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/reliable27e_20051027.htm (The list in the Detroit Free Press omits the Toyota Echo in its list of small car recipients of CR's 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. To see a breakdown by manufacturer and line, go to "Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan's Infiniti Overwhelm CR's 2006 Most Reliable List," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
Source for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability when expressed as "highest," "second-highest," "average," "second-lowest," or "lowest": "Reviews of the 2006 Models," Consumer Reports Best Buys for 2006 Buying Guide, pp. 154-176
Source for Consumer Reports' 2006 top-of-vehicle-category Quick Picks: "CR Quick Pick Recommendations," Consumer Reports, April 2006, p. 23
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