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In
the U.S. in February 2006, Reliable Two Sales Set New February Sales
Records; GM's Market Share Drops Another Notch and Ford's Inches Up a Notch; Toyota
RAV4 Sales Surge Again
Auto on Info March 2006
In the U.S. in February 2006, Reliable Two Sales Set New February Sales Records; GM's Market Share Drops Another Notch and Ford's Inches Up a Notch; Toyota RAV4 Sales Surge Again
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 2% in February 2006, over those of February 2005, to set a new February sales record. Its U.S. car sales fell 3%, but its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 9%. Year to date, Toyota's U.S. cars sales are up 5% and its truck sales are up 11%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of February 2006, together with 1997-2001 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among December 2005's Hottest Ten, per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: February 2006 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for February 2006 from February 2005 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 166,940 2.4% .90 Scion Division 11,407 12.1% N/A xA 2,285 22.5% N/A xB 4,074 6.9% N/A tC 5,048 12.2% N/A Toyota Division 134,406 0.9% .90 Passenger Car 65,897 -6.7% N/A Avalon 6,900 29.8% .86 Camry1v,1r,1f,R6 27,354 -14.2% .90 Corolla1r,R6 25,088 -1.5% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s,R6 6,547 -7.5% .851 Light Truck 68,509 9.5% N/A RAV41,1r (SUV) 11,068 114.0% .93 Sienna*,1s,1f (minivan) 12,329 3.8% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 9,033 -12.5% .981 4Runner1v,1s,R6 (SUV) 8,613 -0.5% .96 Land Cruiser1r,1s,R6 (SUV) 297 -29.6% .91 Tundra1r,1s,R6 (pickup truck) 10,566 -4.5% .921 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 13,735 25.7% .94 Lexus Division 21,127 7.1% .92 Passenger Car 10,615 11.4% N/A ES 3301 3,223 -29.7% .952 LS 430*^,1r,1s,R6 1,015 -50.0% .972 GS 300R6 1,771 10.5% .933 GS 430 278 -19.4% .932,3 SC 430R6 (hardtop convertible) 446 -17.7% N/A IS 300 3,882 807.0% .901 Light Truck 10,512 3.1% N/A RX 330*^,1,1s and 400hR6 (SUV) 8,247 15.6% .922 GX 4701s (SUV) 1,813 -27.0% N/A LX 470 452 -22.6% .852 Note: Corolla sales total includes Matrix wagon. 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number 3The GS 300 and the GS 430 have pooled reliability data and consequently a common Reliability Percentrank. Bold blue script indicates that the model was in December 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. A gold R6 (R6)indicates that the 2006 model has received a Consumer Reports predicted short-term reliability rating of "Most Reliable." Additional 2006 models by Toyota Motor Corporation that are on CR's Most Reliable list are the Toyota Echo, the Toyota Matrix wagon, the Lexus IS300, and the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in February 2006 over February 2005 were the Lexus IS 300 sedan and hatchback, up 807.0% to 3,882, the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle, up 114.0% to 11,068, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 29.8% to 6,900, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 25.7% to 13,735, the Scion xA, up 22.5% to 2,285, the Lexus RX 330/400h sport utility vehicle, up 15.6% to 8,247, the Scion tC, up 12.2% to 5,048, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 10.5% to 1,771, and the Scion xB, up 6.9% to 4,074.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in February 2006 2006 Lexus IS 300 2006 Toyota RAV4 2006 Toyota Avalon (No Icon Available) 2006 Toyota Tacoma 2006 Scion xA 2006 Lexus RX 330 2006 Scion tC 2006 Lexus GS 300 2006 Scion xB The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Toyota's Scion line, up 12.1% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The reliability of the North-American-made Toyota Avalon has improved in recent years (a 2000-2001 RPA of .94 vs. a 1995-1999 RPA of .82); however, for model year 2006 Consumer Reports accords the Avalon a predicted short-term reliability of only average, something of a disaster for a Toyota. Only time will tell what its actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through February 2006 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 69.7%.
The likelihood of finding a 2006 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 91.6% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. through February 2006 were made in North America and 91.5% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. through February 2006 were made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the U.S. consumer will have to buy used, if a Toyota Corolla or Toyota Camry is his/her desire. (However, the consumer may try telling the dealership, "Look for it. If you can't find it, there's no sale.") U.S. consumers seeking a made-in-Japan 2006 Lexus RX 330 are more fortunate; only about half of the RX 330s sold in the U.S. through February 2006 were made in North America. U.S. consumers looking for a made-in-Japan 2006 Toyota Avalon have no hope at all, as all of the Toyota Avalons sold in the U.S. are made in North America; this may account for their modest predicted short-term reliability.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .84, saw its February 2006 U.S. auto sales soar 9% to set a new February sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 11% and its U.S. truck sales rose 5%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in February 2006 over February 2005 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the gas-propelled Honda Civic (with a 1996-2000 RPA of .95 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and with the Honda Civic EX also being a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 38.1% to 22,942, and the hybrid Honda Civic (CR 2005 reliability, owner satisfaction, fuel economy, and overall Quick Picks), up 31.6% to 1,780. These two versions of the venerable Civic accounted for Honda's February sales success.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in February 2006 2006 Honda Civic coupe and sedan 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid The above links are to onsite review pages for the 2005 models. Through February 2006, the Toyota Sienna minivan outsold the Honda Odyssey by 1,428 vehicles, or 6.3%, and the Toyota RAV4 outsold the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle by 804 vehicles, or 4.1%. Both of the latter two have solid reliability histories; the Honda CR-V has a 1997-2001 RPA of .99 and a CR predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and the Toyota RAV4 has a 1997-2001 RPA of .93. With regard to the reliability of the minivans, the Honda Odyssey has not fared well of late. Its 1999-2001 Reliability Percentrank average is only .70 (in contrast to its 1995-1998 RPA of .975) and Consumer Reports accords its 2006 model year a predicted short-term reliability of only average (rather matching its early 2002 Reliability Percentrank of .53), something of a disaster for a Honda-engineered product. However, as with the North-Ameican-made Toyota Avalon, only time will tell what the Odyssey's actual short-term (1-to-3-year) reliability, mid-term (4-to-6-year) reliability, and longer term (7-to-8-year) reliability will be.
Nissan Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 Reliability Percentrank average of .81, saw its U.S. auto sales rise 2% in February 2006. Its U.S. car sales rose 5%, but its U.S. truck sales fell a fraction of 1%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in February 2006 over February 2005 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category), up 788.9% to 2,000, the Nissan Murano midsized sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1997-2001 RPA, but with a CR 2005 and 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the Murano SL edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 29.2% to 7,421, the Nissan Sentra sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .63 and with a CR 2006 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 17.0% to 9,945, and the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle (1997-2001 RPA of .85), up 9.6% to 6,680.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in February 2006 2006 Infiniti M45 2006 Nissan Murano 2006 Nissan Sentra 2006 Nissan Pathfinder Subaru division of Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd., with a 1997-2001 RPA of .82, saw its February 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 6%. Its car sales rose 11% but its truck sales fell 34%. Sales of its Impreza sedan rose 12% and sales of its Impreza wagon rose 16%.
Mazda Motor Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .70, saw its February 2006 U.S. auto sales soar 15%. Its car sales rose 23%, but its truck sales fell 22%.
In summary, the February 2006 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Mazda all advanced.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .30, saw its February 2006 sales fall 3%. GM spent a bundle on advertising in February, with rather little to show for it. In 2006, GM has a number of redone models coming to the market; whether this will slow the U.S. consumer shift toward quality and out of GM products is difficult to say.
Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler, AG, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .40, saw its February 2006 U.S. auto sales rise 3%.
Ford Motor Company, with a 1997-2001 RPA of .51, saw its February 2006 U.S. auto sales fall 3%. This decline occurred despite the fact that 41% of its February sales were fleet sales, according to a Ford sales analysis manager, per the Associated Press1. Less than two years ago, Ford announced that it was going to cut back on fleet sales, as they offer little profit and dampen resale values, but apparently Ford has decided that it is better to sell on the cheap than not to sell at all.
February sales caused GM's U.S. market share to drop another notch and Ford's to inch up a notch. The following table summarizes some current and historical market shares, as well as natural market share estimates.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and Year-to-Date 2006, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 YTD 2006 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .14 .23 .09 .07 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .09 .09 .14 .05 .04 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .16 .09 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .03 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .24 .04 -.20 -.10 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .17 .18 .07 -.11 -.08 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, GM took another battering in February 2006; Hyundai's sales advanced a fraction of a percent as GM's fell 3%.
U.S. February 2006 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1997-2001 RPA of .43, rose 10%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1997-2001 RPA of .29, fell 19%.
In the niche markets, Porsche February 2006 U.S. auto sales rose 20%, BMW sales rose 2%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 28%. Old line European nobility had a good month.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for February 2006 over February 2005 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 24 selling days in February 2006 and 24 in February 2005.
Source for February 2006 auto manufacturer sales data: "February 2006 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, March 1, 2006, available at mlive.com's News Flash section and "Advertising Fails to Spur Feb. Auto Sales," Dee-Ann Durbin, the Associated Press, March 1, 2006, available at Yahoo! News
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports February Sales," March 1, 2006, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2006030112235
Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Announces February Sales," March 1, 2006, available at http://www.nissannews.com/corporate/news/current/20060301115306.shtml
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Sales Increase 8.7 Percent to New February Record," March 1, 2006, http://www.hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2006030149544&mime=asc
Source for Subaru Impreza sales: www.media.subaru.com
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for December 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2006, p. D4 (See "By WSJ's Lot-Stay Time, Made-in-Japan TMC Models Are Top 5 of Hottest 10," Auto on Info, January 2006.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
Sources for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability ratings of "most reliable": "Asian Auto Brands' Reliability Uneven," Christine Tierney, Detroit News, October 27, 2005, at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/27/C01-362825.htm and "Asian Vehicles Rank Low in Survey," Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today at Detroit Free Press, October 27, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/reliable27e_20051027.htm (The list in the Detroit Free Press omits the Toyota Echo in its list of small car recipients of CR's 2006 "Most Reliable" rating. To see a breakdown by manufacturer and line, go to "Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan's Infiniti Overwhelm CR's 2006 Most Reliable List," Auto on Info, November 2005.)
Source for Consumer Reports' 2006 predicted short-term reliability when expressed as "highest," "second-highest," "average," "second-lowest," or "lowest": "Reviews of the 2006 Models," Consumer Reports Best Buys for 2006 Buying Guide, pp. 154-176
1 "Advertising Fails to Spur Feb. Auto Sales," Dee-Ann Durbin, the Associated Press, March 1, 2006, available at Yahoo! News
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