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In the U.S. in
August 2005, Reason Rather Returns: Quality Four Sales Soar, GM Sales Plunge
Auto on Info September 2005
In the U.S. in August 2005, Reason Rather Returns: Quality Four Sales Soar, GM Sales Plunge
By James B. Bleeker
Toyota Motor Corporation, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 9% in August 2005, over those of August 2004, to set a new August sales record. Its U.S. car sales rose 18%, but its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales fell 1%.
The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of August 2005, together with 1996-2000 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2005's Hottest Ten (actually dozen, by tie), per WSJ's lot-stay time, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.
Table I: August 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for August 2005 from August 2004 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 205,362 9.5% .90 Scion Division 15,228 17.3% N/A xA 2,805 10.8% N/A xB 4,959 -3.2% N/A tC 7,464 40.2% N/A Toyota Division 162,009 9.3% .89 Passenger Car 90,344 18.4% N/A Avalon 9,020 200.7% .84 Camry1v,1r,1f 39,896 7.7% .87 Corolla1r 31,369 2.3% .93 Prius*^,1r,1s 9,850 115.6% N/A Light Truck 71,665 -0.3% N/A Sienna*,1s,1f (minivan) 14,479 14.8% .80 Highlander1v,1r,1s (SUV) 13,042 7.6% N/A 4Runner1v,1s (SUV) 8,746 -19.0% .94 Land Cruiser1r,1s (SUV) 461 -21.1% .88 Tundra1r,1s (pickup truck) 8,255 -23.5% .871 Tacoma1f (pickup truck) 16,140 17.7% .93 Lexus Division 28,125 6.5% .92 Passenger Car 14,626 19.3% N/A ES 3301 7,345 6.5% .932 LS 430*^,1r,1s 2,548 -3.0% .952 GS 300 2,811 304.0% N/A GS 430 524 342.0% N/A SC 430 (hardtop convertible) 738 -13.7% N/A Light Truck 13,499 -4.7% N/A RX 330*^,1,1s and 400h (SUV) 9,644 -5.7% .881,2 GX 4701s (SUV) 2,966 -7.5% N/A LX 470 889 22.3% N/A 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2005's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick. A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick. A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick. A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick. A gold 1f (1f)indicates that the model is an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in August 2005 over August 2004 were the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 342.0% to 524, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 304.0% to 2,811, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 200.7% to 9,020, the Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 115.6% to 9,850, the Toyota Scion tC, up 40.2% to 7,464, the Lexus LX 470 large sport utility vehicle, up 22.3% to 889, the Toyota Tacoma pickup truck, up 17.7% to 16,140, the Toyota RAV4 small sport utility vehicle (1996-2000 RPA of .93 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 best all-around Quick Pick), up 11.2% to 7,380, the Toyota Sienna minivan, up 14.8% to 14,479, the Scion xA, up 10.8% to 2,805, the Toyota Camry, up 7.7% to 39,896, and the Toyota Highlander mid-size sport utility vehicle, up 7.6% to 13,042.
Toyota's Hottest Sellers in August 2005 2005 Lexus GS 430 2005 Lexus GS 300 2005 Toyota Avalon 2005 Toyota Prius 2005 Scion tC 2005 Lexus LX 470 2005 Toyota Tacoma 2005 Toyota RAV4 2005 Toyota Sienna 2005 Scion xA 2005 Toyota Camry 2005 Toyota Highlander The above links are to onsite review pages. Toyota's Scion line, up 17.3% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.
The Toyota Prius, up 115.6% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2005 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2005 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the 2005 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, it is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick. Nonetheless, the Prius has a stalling glitch. (See "Prius Has Stalling Glitch, NHTSA Commences Investigation," Auto on Info, June 2005.) It will likely be incumbent upon Toyota to resolve it, for sales momentum to be maintained.
U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through August 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 59.3%.
The likelihood of finding a 2005 made-in-Japan Toyota Corolla or Camry on a U.S. dealer lot is small; Toyota Motor Corporation reports that 97.0% of the Corollas sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America and 94.1% of the Camrys sold in the U.S. so far in 2005 have been made in North America. If made-in-Japan is an uncompromisable criterion, most likely the consumer will have to buy used.
Honda Motor Company, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its August 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 19% to set a monthly record. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in August 2005 over August 2004 were - excluding the Honda Insight and Acura NSX, which have nominal sales - the Acura RL sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .90 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 583.8% to 1,721, the Honda Civic Hybrid (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR fuel economy Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 119.5% to 4,146, the Honda S2000 convertible (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category and a CR 2005 predicted owner satisfaction in the highest category), up 53.3% to 885, the Honda Odyssey minivan (1996-2000 RPA of .87 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, also a CR 2005 Top Pick and an IIHS 2005 Best Pick Frontal), up 20.3% to 16,201, the gas-propelled and hybrid Honda Accord (with a pre-hybrid 1996-2000 RPA of .89 and with a post-hybrid CR predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, the Honda Accord EX - a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, and the Honda Accord Hybrid - a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick, a CR 2005 safety Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 17.2% to 46,153, the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick, and with the Pilot EX-L edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 14.4% to 13,971, and the gas-propelled Honda Civic (with a 1996-2000 RPA of .95 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and with the Honda Civic EX also being a CR 2005 fuel economy Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 13.8% to 30,616, and the Acura MDX sport utility vehicle (a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and with an early 2001 Reliability Percentrank of .90, but too recent too have a 1996-2000 RPA), up 7.2% to 5,379. Through August 2005, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 10,456 vehicles, or 9.4%, and the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle outsold the Toyota RAV4 by 54,132 vehicles, or 106.7%.
Honda's Hottest Sellers in August 2005 2005 Acura RL 2005 Honda Civic hybrid 2005 Honda S2000 2005 Honda Odyssey 2005 Honda Accord EX 2005 Honda Accord Hybrid 2005 Honda Pilot 2005 Honda Civic coupe and sedan 2005 Honda Civic Si 2-door hatchback 2005 Acura MDX The above links are to onsite review pages. Nissan Motor Company, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 11% in August 2005. Its U.S. car sales rose 12% and its U.S. truck sales rose 9%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in August 2005 over August 2004 were the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliabilityin the second highest category), up 1041.2% to 2,623, the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle(1996-2000 RPA of .84), up 146.2% to 6,396, the Nissan Sentra sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .63 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second lowest category), up 29.1% to 10,079, the Nissan Altima sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .78 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category, also with the 3.5 SE V6 edition a CR 2005 safety Quick Pick), up 11.3% to 23,362, and the Nissan Murano sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the Murano SL edition a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 8.7% to 5,935.
Nissan's Hottest Sellers in August 2005 2005 Infiniti M45 2005 Nissan Pathfinder 2005 Nissan Sentra No photo available 2005 Nissan Altima 2005 Nissan Murano Subaru, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .82, saw its August 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 4%. Its car sales rose 17% but its truck sales fell 18%.
Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its August 2005 U.S. auto sales rise a small fraction of 1%. Its car sales rose 15%, but its truck sales fell 35%.
In summary, the August 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Honda, and Nissan were excellent, with increases of 9%, 19%, and 11%, respectively.
At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors Corporation, saw its August sales plunge 17%. Even with its "employee prices for everyone" campaign, GM was hard put to find buyers.
Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33, saw its August 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Chrysler's "employee prices for everyone" campaign fell a bit short too.
Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its August 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 3%. Ford's "employee prices for everyone" campaign was hardly a success.
With regard to Big Three sales, auto quality information is likely trickling into the upper levels of the bottom half of the U.S. population; however, likely little-to-no information trickles into the bottom third, so a little downsizing should solve Big Three problems for another decade.
Market shares remained unchanged from last month.
Table II: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, and Year-to-Date 2005, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993
Manu- facturer 1993
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 YTD 2005 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .23 .10 .06 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .08 .14 .06 .03 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .03 .05 .02 N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .27 .27 .04 -.23 -.07 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .18 .18 .07 -.11 -.08 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .13 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.
In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai clobbered GM with an August sales gain of 5% versus GM's -17%.
U.S. August 2005 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, fell 10%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, fell 18%.
In the niche markets, Porsche August U.S. auto sales rose 3%, BMW sales rose 13%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 3%. Old line European nobility had not a bad month.
Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Percentage unit sales changes for August 2005 over August 2004 are daily selling rate percentage changes and consequently take account of the fact that there were 26 selling days in August 2005 and 25 in August 2004.
Source for August 2005 auto manufacturer sales data: "August 2005 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, September 1, 2005, available at Yahoo! News
Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports Best-Ever August Sales," September 1, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20050901b
Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Announces August Sales," September 1, 2005, available at http://www.nissannews.com/nissan/sales/index.shtml
Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports Record Breaking August Sales," September 1, 2005, http://hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005090149907&mime=asc
Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: Auto on Info's Table I-MVRP
Source for July 2005's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2005, p. D3 (See "By WSJ's Lot Stay Time, Toyota Has 8 of Hottest 12," Auto on Info, August 2005.)
Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59
Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9
Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7
Sources for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31 and Consumer Reports, August 2005, p. 51, the latter providing the "best all-around Quick Picks"
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings (save for the Infiniti M45): "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73
Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability rating for the Infiniti M45: Consumer Reports, September 2005, p. 51
Sources for IIHS Best Pick Frontals: "Toyota Camry and Honda Accord Dominate Results of IIHS' Frontal Offset Crash and Side Impact Tests," Auto on Info, April 2005, "Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey Minivans Score Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receive "Best Pick Frontal" Designation; GM's Chevrolet Astro, GMC Safari, Pontiac TransSport / Montana, and Chevrolet Venture Score Worst," Auto on Info, April 2005, and "Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck Scores Best on IIHS 2005 Crash Tests, Receives "Best Pick Frontal" Designation," Auto on Info, April 2005
1 "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b
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