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Auto on Info  March 2005

In the U.S. in February 2005, Toyota and Nissan Sales Advance, Ford Sales Drop, GM Sales Plummet

Toyota, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 11% in February 2005, over those of February 2004. Its U.S. car sales rose 19% and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 3%.

The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's U.S. sales in the month of February 2005, together with 1996-2000 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: February 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Change for February 2005 from February 2004 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation 163,059 11.1% .90
  Scion Division 10,177 124.0% N/A
      xA 1,866 32.4% N/A
      xB 3,811 21.6% N/A
      tC 4,500 N/A N/A
  Toyota Division 133,157 9.4% .89
    Passenger Car 70,595 14.9% N/A
      Camry1v,1r 31,874 5.0% .87
      Corolla1r 25,479 8.8% .93
      Prius*^,1r,1s 7,078 120.2% N/A
    Light Truck 62,562 3.8% N/A
      Sienna*,1s (minivan) 11,877 -12.5% .80
      Highlander1v,1r,1s (SUV) 10,327 17.2% N/A
      4Runner1v,1s (SUV) 8,660 1.9% .94
      Land Cruiser1r,1s (SUV) 422 -4.1% .88
      Tundra1r,1s (pickup truck) 11,063 48.7% .871
      Tacoma (pickup truck) 10,930 -5.9% .93
  Lexus Division 19,725 -4.0% .92
    Passenger Car 9,528 -3.5% N/A
      ES 3301 4,583 -17.4% .932
      LS 430*^,1r,1s 2,028 -14.0% .952
      GS 300 1,602 196.1% N/A
      SC 430 (hardtop convertible) 542 -12.4% N/A
    Light Truck 10,197 -4.4% N/A
      RX 330*^,1,1s (SUV) 7,131 -5.7% .881,2
      GX 4701s (SUV) 2,482 1.8% N/A
      LX 470 584 -12.7% N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. August 2004's, September 2004's, October 2004's, and November 2004's Hottest Ten were unavailable.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.
A gold caret (^)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 Top Pick.
A gold one (1)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, a Quick Pick with very good or excellent ratings in five categories - road performance, predicted reliability, safety (accident avoidance and crash protection), owner satisfaction, and fuel economy. A gold 1v (1v)indicates that a version of the model is a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick.
A gold 1r (1r)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick.
A gold 1s (1s)indicates that the model is a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in February 2005 over February 2004 were the Lexus GS 430 sedan, up 222.4% to 345, the Lexus GS 300 sedan, up 196.1% to 1,602, the Toyota Prius gas-electric hatchback, up 120.2% to 7,078, the Toyota Avalon large sedan, up 78.6% to 5,317, the Toyota Tundra pickup truck, up 48.7% to 11,063, the Scion xA hatchback, up 32.4% to 1,866, the Scion xB wagon, up 21.6% to 3,811, the Toyota Highlander sport utility vehicle, up 17.2% to10,327, and the Toyota Corolla small sedan, up 8.8% to 25,479.

2005 Lexus GS 430 2005 Lexus GS 300 2005 Toyota Prius
2005 Toyota Avalon 2005 Toyota Tundra 2005 Scion xA
2005 Scion xB 2005 Toyota Highlander 2005 Toyota Corolla

Toyota's Scion line, up 124.0% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.

The Toyota Prius, up 120.2% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2005 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2005 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.1 In short, the 2005 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, it is a Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Pick, a CR 2004 Top Pick, a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, a CR 2005 fuel efficiency Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick.

The Toyota Corolla, up 8.8% for the month, is an internationally renowned 38-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.

U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 through February 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 38.4%.

Nissan, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 10% in February 2005. Its U.S. car sales fell 2% and its U.S. truck sales rose 27%. Nissan Motor Company's models showing the largest gains in U.S. sales in February 2005 over February 2004 were the Infiniti QX56 sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA or a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability), up1,307.5% to 1,126, the Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle(1996-2000 RPA of .84), up 168.0% to 6,094, the Nissan Titan pickup truck (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the middle category and a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick), up 48.6% to 6,894, the Nissan Frontier pickup truck (1996-2000 RPA of .82), up 32.6% to 6,077, the Infiniti M45 sedan (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA or a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability), up 30.1% to 225, the Nissan Armada sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the lowest category), up 21.6% to 3,212, the Nissan Murano sport utility vehicle (too recent for a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the SL version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 21.4% to 5,743, the Nissan Maxima sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .88 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the 3.5 SE version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 15.6% to 5,971, and the Infiniti G35 sport sedan  (no 1996-2000 RPA, but CR accords the G35 sport sedan and coupe a 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 14.6% to 3,941. Nissan's reliability scourge, the Nissan Quest minivan (1996-2000 RPA of .39), had a U.S. sales plunge of 35.6% in February 2005.

Honda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its February 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 7%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in February 2005 over February 2004 were the Acura RL sedan (1996-2000 RPA of .90 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 189.3% to 1,412, the Acura TSX sedan (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick), up 34.7% to 2,638, the Honda Odyssey minivan (1996-2000 RPA of .87 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category, also a CR 2005 Top Pick), up 29.4% to 13,325, and the Honda Pilot sport utility vehicle (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category and with the EX-L version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, also a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick and a CR 2004 and 2005 Top Pick), up 12.1% to 10,625. Through February 2005, the Honda Odyssey minivan outsold the Toyota Sienna by 1,472 vehicles, or 7.0%, and the Honda CR-V sport utility vehicle (1996-2000 RPA of .99 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick) outsold the Toyota RAV4 (1996-2000 RPA of .93and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick and a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick) by 11,925 vehicles, or 126.5%.

Subaru, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .82, saw its February 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 7%. Its car sales rose 7% and its truck sales rose 8%. Fuji Heavy Industries' models showing the largest sales gains in February 2005 over February 2004 were the Subaru Forester (1996-2000 RPA of .83 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the highest category and with the 2.5X version a CR 2005 overall Quick Pick, also a CR 2005 reliability Quick Pick, a CR 2005 owner satisfaction Quick Pick, and a CR 2005 Top Pick), up 16% to 5,053, and Subaru Legacy sedan / Outback wagon (1996-2000 RPA of .81 and with a CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability in the second highest category), up 14% to 6,711.

Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its February 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 2%.

In summary, the February 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Toyota, Nissan, and Subaru rose 11%, 10%, and 7%, respectively.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, February 2005 U.S. auto sales by General Motors, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, fell 13%. Sales fell in all of its lines - Oldsmobile down 95%, Buick down 22%, Pontiac down 19%, Hummer down 13%, Saturn down 12%, GMC down 10%, Chevrolet down 9%, and Cadillac down 3%. Recently, GM has been suffering rather significantly from the U.S. consumer shift toward quality.

Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33,  saw its February 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 8%. The Chrysler group of DaimlerChrysler AG may be benefiting from several factors: (1) Big Three rotation by Big Three consumers in their steadfast search for a quality vehicle, (2) relative inaccessibility of Top Four - Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Subaru - dealerships in some parts of the U.S., (3) clever application of the novelty-by-grotesqueness stratagem, (4)Dietr Zetsche's very solid management talents, and (5) limited decision-making talents and skills at the lower levels of a population cross section.

Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its February 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 3%. Ford Motor Company's February 2005 sales of the Ford F-Series pickup trucks fell 11% and sales of its Ford Explorer sport utility vehicle plunged 19%.2 In the hope to counter the U.S. consumer shift toward quality, Ford is increasing the cash rebates on the Explorer and "several other SUVs and pickups."2 On February 28, 2005, a stock analyst for Banc of America Securities cut Ford and GM common stock ratings to "sell."2

Toyota's and Nissan's new U.S. market shares held in February 2005; GM's dropped again. The year-to-date and historical U.S. market shares, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

Table I: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, and Year-to-Date 2005, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993

Manu- facturer

1993

1995 1997 1999 2001  2003 2004 YTD 2005 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993
Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 .23 .10 .06
Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .08 .14 .06 .03
Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .07 .16 .09 N/A
Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .03 .05 .02 N/A
GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .27 .25 .04 -.21 -.09
Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .18 .18 .07 -.11 -.08
Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .13 .14 .00 -.14 -.01
*The Estimate of Natural Market Share for each manufacturer, save Hyundai, is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.

Hyundai's Natural Market Share Estimate is based on (1) its 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average relative to GM's and (2) its product prices relative to those of GM. A different method of estimating the Natural Market Share of Hyundai is used as its reliability has notably improved since the late 1980s, but still does not significantly differ from GM's.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .31, trounced GM in February with a 19% increase in U.S. auto sales. With this unit sales advance, Hyundai's U.S. market share advanced as well, to .03.

U.S. February 2005 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, fell 6%, but sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, rose 2%. In post-World War II twentieth century, European automakers turned out some of the most reliable motor vehicles in the world; Volvo likely still benefits from yesteryear's renown.

In the niche markets, Porsche February U.S. auto sales rose 8%, BMW sales rose 10%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 16%. Sales of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2001 Reliability Percentranks of .01, .15, .01, and 0.00, plunged 43%.

U.S. auto sales through February 2005 suggests that the big shift toward quality and out of GM and Ford products may continue well into 2005, if not for all of 2005.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for February 2005 auto manufacturer sales data: "Automobile Sales Statistics," Wall Street Journal, March 2, 2005, page C6,  and "February 2005 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, available at Yahoo! News.

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports Best-Ever February Sales," March 1, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20050301

Source for Nissan sales data: "Nissan North America Reports February Sales," March 1, 2005, accessible at http://www.nissannews.com/nissan/sales/index.shtml

Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports February Sales Results," March 1, 2005, http://hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005030153852&mime=asc

Source for Subaru sales data: "Subaru Reports Best February Sales in Nearly Twenty Years," March 1, 2005, http://www.subaru.com/common/news/article.jsp?file=latest_news_index.xml&articleId=20050301

Source for General Motors sales data: "GM Reports 309,375 Deliveries in February," March 1, 2005, accessible at http://media.gm.com

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for July 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2004, p. D4 (See "Toyota Has Four of July 2004's Hottest Selling Top Ten; Honda, BMW, and DaimlerChrysler - Each Two," AOI, August 2004.)

Sources for Consumer Reports 2004 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59

Source for CR 2004 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9

Source for CR 2005 Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 6,7

Source for CR 2005 Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2005, p. 31

Source for CR 2005 predicted short-term reliability ratings: "Vehicle Profiles: A User's Guide," Consumer Reports, April 2005, pp. 40-73

1 "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b

2 "GM and Ford Cut Output after Weak Sales," Reuters, March 1, 2005, available at Yahoo! News

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