Auto on Info  February 2005

In the U.S. in January 2005, Toyota and Nissan Sales Advance, Consumers Continue to Reward Toyota and Nissan Quality with Greater U. S. Auto Market Share and Again Take GM and Ford to the Shed

Nissan, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 15% in January 2005, over those of January 2004. Its U.S. car sales fell 4% and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 43%.

Toyota, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 6% in January 2005. Its U.S. car sale rose 15% and its U.S. truck sales fell 3%.

The following table provides detailed information regarding Toyota Motor Corporation's sales in the month of January 2005, together with 1996-2000 model, line, and manufacturer Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: January 2005 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Change for January 2005 from January 2004	1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation				140,954	6.2%	.90
	Scion Division			8,940	783.0%	N/A
			xA	1,730	336.9%	N/A
			xB	3,377	269.9%	N/A
			tC	3,833	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			113,766	0.6%	.89
		Passenger Car		60,458	6.0%	N/A
			Camry	28,367	0.0%	.87
			Corolla	24,174	11.4%	.93
			Prius*	5,566	106.1%	N/A
		Light Truck		53,308	-4.9%	N/A
			Sienna (minivan)	9,279	-21.7%	.80
			Highlander (SUV)	8,947	5.7%	N/A
			4Runner (SUV)	8,607	0.5%	.94
			Land Cruiser (SUV)	465	0.0%	.88
			Tundra (pickup truck)	8,715	20.6%	.871
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	9,435	-12.0%	.93
	Lexus Division			18,248	-0.3%	.92
		Passenger Car		8,021	-11.5%	N/A
			ES 330	4,487	-7.5%	.932
			LS 430*	2,117	-8.6%	.952
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	462	4.5%	N/A
		Light Truck		10,227	10.6%	N/A
			RX 330* (SUV)	6,879	3.9%	.881,2
			GX 470 (SUV)	2,560	28.9%	N/A
			LX 470	788	22.3%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. August 2004's, September 2004's, October 2004's, and November 2004's Hottest Ten were unavailable.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in January 2005 over January 2004 were the Scion xA, up 336.9%, the Scion xB, up 269.9%, the Toyota Prius, up 106.1%, the Lexus GX 470 sport utility vehicle, up 28.9%, the Lexus LX 470 sport utility vehicle, up 22.3%, the Toyota Tundra pickup, up 20.6%, and the Toyota Corolla, up 11.4%.

Toyota's Scion line, up 783.0% for the month, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.

The Toyota Prius, up 106.1% for the month, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2005 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2005 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.¹ In short, the 2005 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its pre-2004 editions. Third, it is both a Consumer Reports Quick Pick and a CR Top Pick with a predicted reliability in the highest category.

The Toyota Corolla, up 11.4% for the month, is an internationally renowned 38-year legend of reliability, durability, and pleasing performance and appearance. As a buyer from Africa at Dubai's mid-eastern auto mart Ducamz put it: Everyone wants one. Indeed, life may not be complete without having owned a Corolla, and life may be appreciably less interesting without having owned the same one for at least 20 years and 400,000 miles.

U.S. sales of the Lexus LX 470 for January 2005 exceeded those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 69.5%.

Honda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its January 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 2%. Honda Motor Company's models showing the largest sales gains in January 2005 over January 2004 were the Acura RL (1996-2000 RPA of .90), up 203.7%, the Acura TSX (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA), up 30.1%, the Honda Pilot SUV (too recent to have a 1996-2000 RPA, but a CR 2004 Top Pick), up 20.7%, and the Honda Odyssey (1996-2000 RPA of .87), up 11.1%. In January 2005, the Honda Odyssey outsold the Toyota Sienna by 24 vehicles, or 0.3%, and the Honda CR-V (1996-2000 RPA of .99) outsold the Toyota RAV4 (1996-2000 RPA of .93) by 5,904 vehicles, or 138.7%.

Subaru, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .82, saw its January 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 3%.

Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its January 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 1%.

In summary, the January 2005 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were solid; sales by Nissan, Toyota, and Subaru rose 15%, 6%, and 3%, respectively.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, January 2005 U.S. auto sales by General Motors, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, rose 1%. General Motors' January 2005's average incentives were reported to be $3,513, second only to Chrysler's $3,541.² However, incentives appear to have been of little help to the TrailBlazer, January Chevrolet TrailBlazer sales were reported to have plunged 46.4%.³

Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33,  saw its January 2005 U.S. auto sales rise 9%. Chrysler's January 2005's average incentives were reported to be $3,541, the highest in the industry.² Nonetheless, January Jeep Grand Cherokee sales were reported to have dropped 16%.³

Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its January 2005 U.S. auto sales fall 5%, matching Ford's overall 2004 decline. Ford's January 2005's average incentives were reported to be $2,797, the third highest in the industry.² Nonetheless, January Ford Expedition sales were reported to have plunged 41%.³

U.S. consumers continue to reward Toyota and Nissan quality with greater U.S. market shares and continue to punish General Motors and Ford with lower market shares. The year-to-date and historical U.S. market shares, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .31, trounced GM in January with a 19% increase in U.S. auto sales. However, despite this growth, its U.S. market share remains 2%.

U.S. January 2005 auto sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, were up 8%, and sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, were up 7%. In post-World War II twentieth century, European automakers turned out some of the most reliable motor vehicles in the world; they likely still benefit from yesteryear's renown.

In the niche markets, Porsche January U.S. auto sales rose 6%, BMW sales rose 33%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 14%. Sales of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2001 Reliability Percentranks of .01, .15, .01, and 0.00, plunged 43%.

January 2005 suggests that the big shift toward quality and out of GM and Ford may continue into 2005. The interesting question is: Will it accelerate?

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for January 2005 auto manufacturer sales data: "Automobile Sales Statistics," Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2005, page C8,  and "January 2005 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, available at Yahoo! News. In computing the daily selling rate percentage changes, the latter correctly takes account of the fact that the number of selling days in January 2005 (24) differs from the number of selling days in January 2004 (26).

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports January Sales," February 1, 2005, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20050201e

Source for Honda sales data: "American Honda Reports a Record January Light Truck Sales," February 1, 2005, http://hondanews.com/CatID1000?mid=2005020152319&mime=asc

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for July 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2004, p. D4 (See "Toyota Has Four of July 2004's Hottest Selling Top Ten; Honda, BMW, and DaimlerChrysler - Each Two," AOI, August 2004.)

Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59

Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, pp. 8,9

¹ "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b

² "January Incentives," Detroit Free Press, February 3, 2005, at http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/deals-box3e_20050203.htm

³ "January Wallops Ford, GM," The Detroit News, February 2, 2005 at http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0502/02/A01-77564.htm - Note: The article did not state whether the January declines in sales of the Chevrolet TrailBlazer, Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the Ford Expedition were daily selling rate percentage changes or changes without regard to the difference in the number of selling days.

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