Auto on Info  November 2004

In the U.S. in October 2004, Toyota and Nissan Sales Soar Again; GM's Market Share Drops to .27

Nissan, with a 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 27% in October 2004, over those of October 2003. Its U.S. car sales rose 13.9% and its U.S. truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 45.8%. Nissan's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are up 23%.

Toyota, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .90, saw its U.S. auto sales rise by 13% in October 2004. Its U.S. car sale rose 20.3% and its U.S. truck sales rose 5.0%. Toyota's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are up 10%.

For October 2004, Toyota again published very detailed information on vehicle sales. The following table provides this detailed information, but separates out the Scion division from the Toyota division, together with 1996-2000 model Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: October 2004 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Change for October 2004 from October 2003	1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation				170,815	13.0%	.90
	Scion Division			10,550	726.8%	N/A
			xA	2,277	346.5%	N/A
			xB	4,262	456.4%	N/A
			tC	4,011	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			136,556	7.2%	.89
		Passenger Car		73,392	11.0%	N/A
			Camry	35,887	7.2%	.87
			Corolla	27,855	23.2%	.93
			Prius*	6,123	49.9%	N/A
		Light Truck		63,164	3.1%	N/A
			Sienna (minivan)	12,311	-1.0%	.80
			Highlander (SUV)	10,708	27.5%	N/A
			4Runner (SUV)	8,888	-8.8%	.94
			Land Cruiser (SUV)	655	8.3%	.88
			Tundra (pickup truck)	9,488	37.8%	.871
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	10,983	-9.7%	.93
	Lexus Division			23,709	5.5%	.92
		Passenger Car		10,898	-4.4%	N/A
			ES330	5,997	3.2%	.932
			LS430*	2,805	2.0%	.952
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	887	-13.3%	N/A
		Light Truck		12,811	15.8%	N/A
			RX 330* (SUV)	8,437	15.1%	.881,2
			GX 470 (SUV)	3,354	24.9%	N/A
			LX 470	1,020	-2.6%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in July 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. August 2004's and September 2004's Hottest Ten were unavailable.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in October 2004 over October 2003 are the Scion xB, up 456.4%, the Scion xA, up 346.5%, the Toyota Prius, up 49.9%, the Toyota Tundra pickup truck, up 37.8%, the Toyota Highlander SUV, up 27.5%, the Lexus GX 470, up 24.9%, the Toyota Corolla, up 23.2%, and the Lexus RX 330, up15.1%. Although the Land Cruiser had a healthy monthly percentage increase, sales of the Lexus LX 470 for the first ten months of 2004 exceed those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 38.1%.

Toyota's Scion line, up 726.8%, is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.

The Toyota Prius, up 49.9%, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2004 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.¹ In short, the 2004 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its previous editions. Third, it is both a Consumer Reports Quick Pick and a CR Top Pick with a predicted reliability in the highest category.

To meet the surging demand for the Prius, Toyota announced that it plans to increase production by 50% from August 2004 to July 2005.¹

The Toyota Corolla is a 38-year legend that needs no comment.

Mazda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .72, saw its October 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 2%. Mazda's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are up 4%.

Honda, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .86, saw its October 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 10%. Honda's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are up 1%. Subaru's October 2004 sales rose 12% and year-to-date sales have fallen 3%.

In summary, the October 2004 sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products were excellent; sales by Nissan, Toyota, Subaru, and Honda rose 27%, 13%, 12%, and 10%, respectively. Also excellent are the first ten-month sales of Toyota and Nissan, up 10% and 23%, respectively.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, sales by General Motors, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, fell 3%. GM's October 2004 sales brought its market share back down to .27, but its September fire sale continued to give it a year-to-date sales total that is nearly unchanged from the first ten months of 2004.

Chrysler, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .33,  saw its October 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 2%. Chrysler's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are up 3%.

Ford, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, saw its October 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 5%. Ford's U.S. sales for the first ten months of 2004 are down 5%.

All three of the Big Three had lower U.S. car sales for the first ten months of 2004. The decrease in car sales suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three cars = poor quality" may be well planted in the U.S., but not likely in the bottom quartile.

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai, with a 1996-2000 RPA of .31, trounced GM in October with a 15% increase in sales. Hyundai's ten-month sales are up 4%, just a tad short of giving it a .03 market share. So, to win the race to natural market share, most likely GM must do much worse.

Sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors with a 1996-2000 RPA of .50, are down 21% for the first ten months of this year, but sales by Volvo, a European subsidiary of Ford with a 1996-2000 RPA of .29, are up 4% for the first ten months. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Volvo had high Reliability Percentrank averages; from these it may still be benefiting.

In the niche markets, Porsche October sales rose 14%, BMW sales rose 14%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 5%. Sales of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2001 Reliability Percentranks of .01, .15, .01, and 0.00, reversed course and rose 10%.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. October

Source for October 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, November 4, 2004, page C14, "Automobile Sales Statistics."

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Achieves Record October Sales," November 3, 2004, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20041103b

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for July 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2004, p. D4

Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51, Consumer Reports, December 2004, p. 59

Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, p. 9

¹ "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b