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News, Analysis and EditorialDecember
Big Three Fire Sale Viewed as Likely
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News, Analysis and EditorialDecember
Big Three Fire Sale Viewed as Likely
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December Big Three Fire Sale Viewed as Likely
The Financial Times reports that at the end of October, Big Three inventories of unsold vehicles returned to gargantuan levels, despite General Motors' October incentives of $4,000+ and Ford's and Chrysler's October incentives of about $3,500. The following table summarizes Big Three inventories of unsold vehicles at the end of October.
Big Three Inventories in Days of Supply Auto Manufacturer Inventory Ford Motor Company 89 days Chrysler division of DaimlerChrysler 93 days General Motors Corporation 95 days A very large shift toward quality in 2004 has been pushing up Big Three inventories and pushing down their market shares. By comparison, Toyota and Honda, with only meager incentives, had end-of-October inventories of 40 days and 46 days, respectively, below the generally desired 50-to-55-day inventory. For perspective, the following table gives both the 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank average and the end-of-October inventory of each auto manufacturer.
1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Averages and End-of-October Inventories of Unsold Vehicles, by Auto Manufacturer Auto Manufacturer 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average Inventory Toyota Motor Corporation .90 40 days Honda Motor Company .84 46 days Ford .50 89 days Chrysler Division .33 93 days General Motors .29 95 days The huge build-up of unsold Big Three vehicles should prompt the three auto manufacturers to act soon to reduce inventories. General Motors had a successful fire sale in late September (See "In the U.S. in September 2004, Toyota and Nissan Sales Soar; General Motors' and Ford's Fire Sales Able to Attract U.S. Buyers," October 2004.), and Ronald Tadross, of Banc of America Securities, anticipates that GM will again lower (present value) prices before too long. John Casesa, an auto analyst with Merrill Lynch, anticipates that all three will escalate incentives in December.
Big incentives and fire sales are thought to cause more consumers to view a manufacturer's products as cheaply or poorly made, not helpful for the Big Three. Nonetheless, for those consumers still disposed to pay a positive dollar amount for a Big Three car or truck, things are looking good, or at least better, in December.
Source for incentives and inventories: "Big Three Set to Launch New Incentives: Automakers End Oct. with Highest Combined Inventory in 10 Years," by Bernard Simon, Financial Times, November 9, 2004, available at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6442631/ (The article attributes incentive data to Autodata.)
Source of 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank averages: Table I-MVRP
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