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2004 Auto Reliability Updates: Toyota Continues to Govern; GM Stays Stuck ... Deep,
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Auto on Info October 2004
The 2004 Auto Reliability Updates: Toyota Continues to Govern; GM Stays Stuck ... Deep, Down and Under, and Below
Per the 2004 Reliability Percentrank updates, the products of Toyota Motor Corporation continue to dominate the high reliability vehicles, by several measures. By the 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank manufacturer averages, the lead by Toyota, with an average of .90, is sizable; the second best average is six Percentrank points down. The following table gives the five-year Reliability Percentrank averages for the top seven auto manufacturers.
The Top Seven Auto Manufacturers by the 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average Auto Manufacturer 1996-2000 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota .90 Honda .84 Subaru .82 Nissan .74 Mazda .74 Porsche .73 BMW .68 By graphing and extrapolating the annual Reliability Percentrank averages for six of the seven auto manufacturers over the fourteen-year data history (Porsche offers too little data for an extrapolation), it may be seen that the projected 2005 and 2006 Reliability Percentrank averages of Toyota and Subaru lead those of their competitors by a margin of nearly 20 Percentrank points.
However, if Subaru's one aberrational value is deleted, the chart shows a strong dominance by Toyota over all of its competitors.
By another measure, the percentage of entries in the Best Cars and Trucks Tables (per the Reliability Percentrank) for 2000 and 2001, Toyota leads with 75% and 62.5%, respectively, and Honda follows with 25% and 12.5%, respectively. By graphing and extrapolating the fourteen-year history of these percentages, it may be seen that the quality of Toyota's products, by this reliability measure, is rising and the projected reliability of its products for 2005 and 2006 is one of dominance as well.
By the same extrapolation, a declining prevalence of Honda reliability is indicated.
Although Toyota's reliability values and trends remain impressive, there is reason for caution. Toyota's early 2001 Reliability Percentrank average, based on only one year of data, is .86, the lowest annual Reliability Percentrank average Toyota has ever had in the fourteen-year data history. It may be that Toyota's rapid growth about the globe is straining its ability to turn out products with what the Wall Street Journal recently termed "bulletproof reliability."
Of the Big Three, Ford's annual Reliability Percentrank average has declined for four consecutive years. The following table summarizes this decline.
Ford's Reliability Percentrank Averages 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Reliability Percentrank Average .58 .55 .52 .45 .38 Nonetheless, its fourteen-year trend remains positive, as the following extrapolation depicts.
Chrysler's recent reliability performance is somewhat erratic; however, an extrapolation of its annual Reliability Percentrank averages points to continued improvement, although a very modest improvement from reliability depths.
In contrast to both Ford and Chrysler, an extrapolation of General Motors' fourteen-year history of annual Reliability Percentrank averages point to a rather strong downward descent from already very low values.
For easy comparison, the extrapolations for the Reliable Two - Toyota and Honda - and the Big Three - Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors - are included in the following chart.
Note that the more recent and steady Reliability Percentrank average decline by Ford casts doubt on the value of the extrapolation of the Reliability Percentrank averages of this manufacturer. Also note that a casual inspection of the plots on the reliability chart suggests a Big Three convergence, or near convergence, at destitution.
Source for Reliability Percentrank averages: TableI-MVRP
Source for the percentages of entries in the Best Cars and Trucks Tables and Worst Cars and Trucks Tables: Summary of the Best and Worst Cars and Trucks Tables for Model Years 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001
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