Auto on Info  August 2004

In the U.S. in July 2004, Toyota and Nissan Sales Soar, General Motors and Ford Sales Drop, Ford's Market Share Falls to .18, and Once Again Toyota Displaces Chrysler as Number 3

Nissan, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 31% in July 2004, over those of July 2003. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 69%, and its car sales rose 10%. Nissan's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are up 26%.

Toyota, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, increased its U.S. auto sales by 14% in July 2004. Its truck sales rose 9%, and its car sales rose 17%. Toyota's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are up 11%.

In July, 2004, Toyota sales exceeded those of Chrysler. This is the second time within a year and likely heralds that the demise of the expression "Big Three" is not too far off.

For July 2004, Toyota again published very detailed information on vehicle sales. The following table provides this detailed information, together with 1995-1999 model Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among June 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: July 2004 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Increase for July 2004 from July 2003	1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Average
Toyota Motor Corporation				200,206	13.7%	.90
	Scion Division			14,793	879.9%	N/A
			xA	2,681	366.0%	N/A
			xB	5,815	425.8%	N/A
			tC	6,297	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			175,083	14.5%	.88
		Passenger Car		96,799	18.9%	N/A
			Camry	41,459	9.4%	.86
			Corolla	30,568	-6.5%	.93
			Prius*	5,230	666.6%	N/A
		Light Truck		78,284	9.5%	N/A
			Sienna (minivan)	13,290	34.5%	.731
			Highlander (SUV)	14,153	15.3%	N/A
			4Runner (SUV)	11,055	2.2%	.92
			Land Cruiser (SUV)	533	-0.7%	.731
			Tundra (pickup truck)	12,098	21.9%	N/A
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	14,920	4.4%	.93
	Lexus Division			25,123	8.0%	.94
		Passenger Car		12,160	6.8%	N/A
			ES330	6,673	13.8%	.962
			LS430*	2,671	39.6%	.972
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	898	-5.5%	N/A
		Light Truck		12,963	9.2%	N/A
			RX 330* (SUV)	9,490	9.2%	.851,2
			GX 470 (SUV)	2,817	12.9%	N/A
			LX 470	656	-4.4%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in May 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in July 2004 over July 2003 are the Toyota Prius, up 666.6%, the Scion xB, up 425.8%, the Scion xA, up 366.0%, the Lexus LS 430, up 39.6%, the Toyota Sienna, up 34.5%, the Toyota Tundra pickup, up 21.9%, the Toyota Highlander, up 15.3%, the Lexus ES330, up 13.8%, the Lexus GX 470, up 12.9%. Sales of the Lexus LX 470 for the first seven months of 2004 exceed those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 39.2%.

Toyota's Scion line is a new line. It is intended to meet the tastes and needs of young adults; however, it has, as well, proven popular with Baby Boomers - older folks who are generally young at heart.

The Toyota Prius, up 666.6%, is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid. The extraordinary popularity of the 2004 edition is likely a consequence of a combination of factors. First, the 2004 Prius is a midsize sedan. Second, it employs new gas-electric power-train technology that delivers more power and performs greater work per unit of energy source. This gives it an acceleration comparable to that of the Camry midsize sedan and increases its estimated EPA rating for in-city driving from 55 miles per gallon to 60 miles per gallon.¹ In short, the 2004 edition of the Prius is a bigger car with better gas mileage than its previous editions. Third, it is both a Consumer Reports Quick Pick and a CR Top Pick with a predicted reliability in the highest category.

To meet the surging demand for the Prius, Toyota announced that it plans to increase production by 50% over the next year - from August 2004 to July 2005.¹

Mazda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .72, saw its July 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 15%. Its truck sales fell 29%, and its car sales fell 7%. Mazda's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are up 11%.

Honda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .86, saw its July 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 3%. Honda's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are up 1%. Subaru's July 2004 sales fell 8% and year-to-date sales have fallen 5%.

Overall, sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products in the first seven months of 2004 have been good; for Toyota, Nissan, and Mazda, excellent.

At the other end of the quality spectrum, General Motors, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .30, had July 2004 sales that were down 3% from those of July 2003. Nonetheless, GM's sales may still be rather artificially bloated, as Ford is jettisoning some of its low-profit-to-unprofitable fleet sales and GM is gathering up a goodly amount  of what Ford is discarding. General Motors' July 2004 U.S. car sales were down 4%, and its truck sales were down 3%. GM's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are down 1%.

Chrysler, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .31, saw its July 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 2%. Chrysler's July 2004 U.S. car sales were up 22%, but its truck sales were down 2%. Chrysler's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are up 2%.

Ford, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .51, saw its July 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 7%. Ford's July 2004 U.S. car sales fell 21%, and its truck sales fell 2%. Ford's U.S. sales for the first seven months of 2004 are down 5%.

All three of the Big Three had lower U.S. car sales in the first seven months of 2004. The decrease in car sales suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three cars = poor quality" may be well planted in the U.S. and is beginning to reach the lower segments of the U.S. population.

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

General Motors' market share of .27 now seems secure for 2004 for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is increasing its incentives on some 2004 models to $6,000, likely the largest in automotive history. Secondly, GM's successful avoidance of bankruptcy over the past quarter century suggests that its marketing personnel are marketing geniuses, likely talented enough to sell arsenic as a vitamin supplement. This leaves only Nissan's, Ford's, Chrysler's, and Hyundai's year-end market shares as matters of speculation.

In the Hyundai vs. General Motors war, Hyundai is winning, with vehicle sales up 6% in July 2004 and 3% for the first seven months.

Sales by Saab, a European subsidiary of General Motors, are down 22% for the first seven months of this year.

In the niche markets, Porsche July sales rose 2%, BMW sales fell 8%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 3%. The rotation out of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2000 Reliability Percentranks of .03, .15, and .02, gathered steam; sales fell 21%.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for July 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2004, page B2, "Automobile Sales Statistics." As now seems usual, the July 2004 daily selling rate percentage changes given in the Journal were not corrected for the increased number of selling days in July 2004; however, the correct daily selling rate percentage changes may be found in "July 2004 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, at http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/business-3/109157050674420.xml.

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Announces Best-Ever July Sales: Achieves 200K Sales for Third Time in Past 12 Months," August 3, 2004, at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803c

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for June 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2004, p. D2

Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51

Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, p. 9

¹ "Toyota Announces 50-Percent Boost in 2005 Prius Hybrid Production To Meet Unprecedented Demand," at http://pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040803b