Bookmarking Auto on Info pages Home or Site Layout or Site Index or Quick Jumps or Search Engine Directory or The Mart Auto News, Analysis and EditorialIn the U.S. in June 2004, Toyota and Nissan Sales Advance, General Motors and Ford Sales Plunge

 

Links to Amazon.com Information Media The Toyota Way: 14 Management Principles From The World's Greatest Manufacturer  December 17, 2003, from McGraw-Hill Toyota Production System: An Integrated Approach to Just-In-Time Decoding the DNA of the Toyota Production System (This is an article from the Harvard Business Review.) The End of Detroit: How the Big Three Lost Their Grip on the American Car Market by Micheline Maynard, a New York Times reporter Consumer Reports The Wall Street Journal Harvard Business Review  Some Book Purchases by Visitors in 2004  Values Seabiscuit The Art of Happiness: A Handbook for Living The Five People You Meet in Heaven The Nobel Book of Answers: The Dalai Lama, Mikhail Gorbachev, Shimon Peres, and Other Nobel Prize Winners Answer Some of Life's Most Intriguing Questions for Young People with an introduction by Jimmy Carter The Prophet TRUE PROFESSIONALISM: The Courage to Care About Your People, Your Clients, and Your Career Why Courage Matters: The Way to a Braver Life by John McCain and Mark Salter Women's Bodies, Women's Wisdom The Best Things Parents Do: Ideas & Insights from Real-World Parents French for Children (Language for Children Series) Berlitz Kid's French Dictionary (Berlitz Kids) Making Music at the Piano: Learning Strategies for Adult Students from Oxford University Press Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire by Chalmers Johnson The Sorrows of Empire: Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic [The American Empire Project] by Chalmers Johnson Brief Points: An Almanac for Parents and Friends of U.S. Naval Academy Midshipmen  History Panzer Commander: The Memoirs of Colonel Hans von Luck Photo Nomad Elizabeth and Mary: Cousins, Rivals, Queens Six Wives: The Queens of Henry VIII Talents and Their Application Sewing 101: a beginner's guide to sewing Claire Shaeffer's Fabric Sewing Guide (Creative Machine Arts) Learning SQL: A Step-by-Step Guide Using Access Palm OS Programming Professional Projects A Distribution-Free Theory of Nonparametric Regression from Springer Verlag Chaos: A Statistical Perspective (Springer Series in Statistics) from Springer Verlag Travel Hidden Florida: Including Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa Bay, the Everglades, and the Keys Introduction to California Plant Life, Revised Edition National Audubon Society Regional Guide to California Zagatsurvey 2004 California Wine Country Restaurants (Zagatsurvey California Wine Country Restaurants, 2004) Lonely Planet Alaska (Alaska, 7th Ed) Trekking Equipage Marmot backpacks To view more "Trekking Equipage" items, icons, and search phrases, click here.

Auto on Info  July 2004 In the U.S. in June 2004, Toyota and Nissan Sales Advance, General Motors and Ford Sales Plunge Nissan, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 9% in June 2004, over those of June 2003. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 59%, but its car sales fell 14%. Nissan's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 25%. Toyota, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, increased its U.S. auto sales by 5% in June 2004. Its truck sales rose 4%, and its car sales rose 6%. Toyota's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 11%. For June 2004, Toyota again published very detailed information on vehicle sales. The following table provides this detailed information, together with 1995-1999 model Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among May 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized. Table I: June 2004 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model Manufacturer Division Type of Vehicle Model Sales Volume Percentage Increase for June 2004 from June 2003 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Average Toyota Motor Corporation 170,366 5.2% .90   Scion Division 8,168 N/A N/A       xA 2,933 524.3% N/A       xB 5,235 458.4% N/A   Toyota Division 147,299 5.1% .88     Passenger Car 82,683 6.8% N/A       Camry 37,603 6.8% .86       Corolla 28,225 -5.2% .93       Prius* 4,219 278.9% N/A     Light Truck 64,616 3.0% N/A       Sienna (minivan) 13,681 25.3% .731       Highlander (SUV) 10,891 9.4% N/A       4Runner (SUV) 8,194 -10.4% .92       Land Cruiser (SUV) 474 -6.6% .731       Tundra (pickup truck) 8,901 1.4% N/A       Tacoma (pickup truck) 12,891 0.1% .93   Lexus Division 23,067 5.7% .94     Passenger Car 11,132 0.8% N/A       ES330 6,036 5.0% .962       LS430* 2,486 50.2% .972       SC 430 (hardtop convertible) 899 -6.3% N/A     Light Truck 11,935 10.7% N/A       RX 330* (SUV) 8,760 14.1% .851,2       GX 470 (SUV) 2,502 1.3% N/A       LX 470 673 5.7% N/A 1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years 2Includes data for preceding model number Bold blue script indicates that the model was in May 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers. Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction. Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick. A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick. The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in June 2004 over June 2003 are the Scion xA, up 524.3%, the Scion xB, up 458.4%, the Toyota Prius, up 278.9%, the Lexus LS 430, up 50.2%, the Toyota Sienna, up 25.3%, the Lexus RX 330, up 14.1%, and the Toyota Highlander, 9.4%. Sales of the Lexus LX 470 for the first six months of 2004 exceed those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 42.0%. Mazda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .72, increased its U.S. auto sales by 2% in June 2004. Its truck sales fell 21%, but its car sales rose 14%. Mazda's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 17%. Honda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .86, saw its June 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Honda's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 2%. Subaru's June 2004 sales fell 4% and year-to-date sales have fallen 5%. Overall, it was a sixth good month of sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products. At the other end of the spectrum, General Motors, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .30, had June 2004 sales that were down 16% from those of June 2003. Nonetheless, GM's sales may still be rather artificially bloated, as Ford is jettisoning some of its low-profit-to-unprofitable fleet sales and GM is gathering up a goodly amount  of what Ford is discarding. General Motors' June 2004 U.S. car sales were down 15%, and its truck sales were down 16%. GM's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 1%. Chrysler, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .31, saw its June 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Chrysler's June 2004 U.S. car sales were up 6%, but its truck sales were down a fraction of a percent. Chrysler's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are up 2%. Ford, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .51, saw its June 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 12%. Ford's June 2004 U.S. car sales fell 20%, and its truck sales fell 7%. Ford's U.S. sales for the first six months of 2004 are down 4%. All three of the Big Three had lower U.S. car sales in the first six months of 2004. The decrease in car sales suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three cars = poor quality" may be well planted in the U.S. and is beginning to reach the lower segments of the U.S. population. However, likely of greater concern to the Big Three is that GM's minivan sales through May 2004 were down 12.6%, Ford's - down 6.7%, and Chrysler's - down 5.8%, while Toyota's minivan sales were up 119.6% and those of Kia were up 28%.1 The contrast suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three minivans = junk, or at least relative junk" may be very broadly embraced. Table I-MINCRP providing a history of minivan Reliability Percentranks suggests that the equation has foundation, although the data point to a much better foundation when the made-in-Japan Previa held sway. The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below. Table I: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, and Year-to-Date 2004, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993 Manu- facturer 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001  2003 YTD 2004 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993 Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .23 .11 .05 Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .14 .06 .03 Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .16 .10 N/A Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .02** .00** N/A GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .27 .04 -.23 -.07 Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .19 .07 -.12 -.07 Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .14 .00 -.14 -.01 *The Estimate of Natural Market Share is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts. **Note that Hyundai's Reliability Percentrank Average has increased considerably in the past 12 years (see Hyundai Reliability Percentranks) and its market share is growing in many markets; consequently, the above estimate of natural market share for Hyundai may not be suitable. With Nissan's June slowdown in growth, GM's and Ford's rather dramatic plunge in June sales, and Chrysler's little June uptick, the year-end market shares for these four have become a matter of speculation. Also, GM's and Ford's June plunge in U.S. sales raises some doubt as to whether Australia, even with its current big lead, will reach natural market shares before the U.S. (See Australia May Reach Natural Market Share Eight Years Sooner Than U.S., May 2004.) In the niche markets, Porsche June sales fell 1%, BMW sales rose 8%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 3%. The rotation out of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2000 Reliability Percentranks of .03, .15, and .02, continued; sales fell 12%. Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover. Source for June 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2004, page B3, "Automobile Sales Statistics." As is often the case, the June 2004 daily selling rate percentage changes given in the Journal were not corrected for the increased number of selling days in June 2004; however, the correct daily selling rate percentage changes may be found in "A Look at June 2004 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, accessible at Yahoo! News. Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Announces Best-Ever June Sales: Sets Second-Quarter and First-Half Sales Records," July 1, 2004, at http://www.pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040701 Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP Source for May 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2004, p. D9 Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53, Consumer Reports, August 2004, p. 51 Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, p. 9 1 "Minivan Sales Up, but not Detroit's," Detroit Free Press, http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/van22_20040622.htm

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