Auto on Info  June 2004

In the U.S. in May 2004, Toyota, Nissan, and Mazda Sales Have Double Digit Growth: Market Shares Hold

Nissan, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 28% in May 2004, over those of May 2003. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 68%; its car sales rose 8%. Nissan's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 28%.

Mazda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .72, increased its U.S. auto sales by 24% in May 2004. Its truck sales fell 3%, but its car sales rose 42%. Mazda's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 21%.

Toyota, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, increased its U.S. auto sales by 13% in May 2004. Its truck sales rose 14%, and its car sales rose 12%. Toyota's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 12%.

For May 2004, Toyota published very detailed information on vehicle sales. The following table provides this detailed information, together with 1995-1999 model Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among April 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: May 2004 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Increase for May 2004 from May 2003	1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank
Toyota Motor Corporation				202,420	12.6%	.90
	Scion Division			6,173	N/A	N/A
			xA	2,414	N/A	N/A
			xB	3,759	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			176,265	12.3%	.88
		Passenger Car		98,000	11.3%	N/A
			Camry	45,375	7.7%	.86
			Corolla	36,894	6.6%	.93
			Prius*	3,962	233.7%	N/A
		Light Truck		78,265	13.8%	N/A
			Sienna (minivan)	16,273	84.3%	.731
			Highlander (SUV)	13,103	17.1%	N/A
			4Runner (SUV)	10,437	-0.7%	.92
			Land Cruiser (SUV)	523	-1.3%	.731
			Tundra (pickup truck)	9,663	-9.1%	N/A
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	16,083	12.4%	.93
	Lexus Division			26,155	13.9%	.94
		Passenger Car		12,762	13.9%	N/A
			ES330	7,099	23.9%	.962
			LS430*	2,763	55.3%	.972
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	989	-5.0%	N/A
		Light Truck		13,393	13.9%	N/A
			RX 330* (SUV)	9,659	17.7%	.851,2
			GX 470 (SUV)	3,007	6.2%	N/A
			LX 470	727	1.7%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in March 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers.
Italicized script indicates that the model received CAA's most recent Pyramid Award for ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in May 2004 over May 2003 are the Toyota Prius, up 233.7%, the Toyota Sienna, up 84.3%, the Lexus LS 430, up 55.3%, the Lexus ES 330, up 23.9%, the Lexus RX 330, up 17.7%, and the Toyota Highlander, 17.1%. Sales of the Lexus LX 470 for the first five months of 2004 exceed those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, a more Spartan cousin, by 30.0%.

Honda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .86, saw its May 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 14%. Honda's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 2%. Subaru's May 2004 sales fell 10% and year-to-date sales have fallen 5%.

Overall, it was a fifth good month of sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products.

At the other end of the spectrum, General Motors, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .30, had May 2004 sales that were up 7% from those of May 2003. However, GM's sales may be rather artificially bloated, as Ford is jettisoning some of its low-profit-to-unprofitable fleet sales and GM is gathering up a goodly amount  of what Ford is discarding. General Motors' May 2004 U.S. car sales were down a small fraction of a percent, but its truck sales were up 11%. GM's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 3%.

Chrysler, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .31, saw its May 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 5%. Chrysler's May 2004 U.S. car sales were down 3%, but its truck sales were up 8%. Chrysler's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are up 2%.

Ford, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .51, saw its May 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Ford's May 2004 U.S. car sales fell 0.4%, but its truck sales rose 2%. Ford's U.S. sales for the first five months of 2004 are down 3%.

All three of the Big Three had lower U.S. car sales in May 2004, but higher truck sales. The decrease in car sales suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three cars = poor quality" may be well planted in the U.S. and is beginning to reach the lower segments of the U.S. population. However, the increase in truck sales suggests that the conceptual equation "Big Three trucks = poor quality" is less well planted and has not yet reached the lower depths of the U.S. population. Consequently, big discounts and incentives on Big Three trucks should keep them moving over the near term.

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

The above year-to-date market shares seem likely to be the final market shares for all of 2004; however, here are some qualifying remarks. Ford's continued jettisoning of unprofitable and low-profit fleet sales may cause its market share to fall to 18%. For GM to hold on to its 27%, Ford's jettisoning of fleet sales and GM's embrace of this debris may be necessary. Nissan likely must retain its high growth rate for a couple of more months to bag its 6% market share for the year.

In the niche markets, Porsche May sales fell 9%, BMW sales rose 12%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 2%. The rotation out of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2000 Reliability Percentranks of .03, .15, and .02, accelerated; sales fell 20%.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for May 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2004, page A6, "Automobile Sales Statistics." As is often the case, the May 2004 daily selling rate percentage changes given in the Journal were not corrected for the reduced number of selling days in May 2004; however, the correct daily selling rate percentage changes may be found in "A Look at May 2004 U.S. Auto Sales," the Associated Press, accessible at Yahoo! News.

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Announces Best-Ever Sales Month in 47 Years of Business in the U.S.," June 2, 2004, at http://www.pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_print.html?id=20040602

Source for Reliability Percentranks and Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for April 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2004, p. D3

Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53

Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, p. 9