Auto on Info  May 2004

In the U.S. in April 2004, At the Upper End of Quality, Toyota, Nissan, and Mazda Sales Have Double Digit Growth; At the Opposite End of the Spectrum, General Motors and Chrysler Sales Gains Are Minimal

Nissan, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .74, increased its U.S. auto sales by 14% in April 2004, over those of April 2003. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 58%; its car sales fell 7%. Nissan's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are up 30%.

Mazda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .72, increased its U.S. auto sales by 10% in April 2004. Its truck sales fell 29%, but its car sales rose 35%. Mazda's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are up 22%.

Toyota, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .90, increased its U.S. auto sales by 10% in April 2004. Its truck sales rose 17%, and its car sales rose 5%. Toyota's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are up 13%.

For April 2004, Toyota published very detailed information on vehicle sales. The following table provides this detailed information, together with 1995-1999 model Reliability Percentrank averages. Those models that were among March 2004's Hottest Ten, for all manufacturers, are in bold blue. That model that was in CAA's most recently published Top 10 Vehicles by ownership satisfaction is italicized.

Table I: April 2004 Toyota Sales, Percentage Changes, and 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank Averages, by Line, Type, and Model
Manufacturer	Division	Type of Vehicle	Model	Sales Volume	Percentage Increase for April 2004 from April 2003	1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank
Toyota Motor Corporation				167,129	10.1%	.90
	Scion Division			5,721	N/A	N/A
			xA	1,896	N/A	N/A
			xB	3,825	N/A	N/A
	Toyota Division			143,574	10.0%	.88
		Passenger Car		76,515	3.6%	N/A
			Camry	34,467	5.1%	.86
			Prius*	3,684	152.8%	N/A
		Light Truck		67,059	18.4%	N/A
			Sienna (minivan)	14,203	135.7%	.731
			Highlander (SUV)	11,044	15.5%	N/A
			4Runner (SUV)	8,889	1.5%	.92
			Land Cruiser (SUV)	533	4.3%	.731
			Tundra (pickup truck)	8,672	15.7%	N/A
			Tacoma (pickup truck)	13,231	3.6%	.93
	Lexus Division			23,555	10.7%	.94
		Passenger Car		11,573	13.1%	N/A
			ES330	6,460	21.9%	.962
			LS430*	2,706	63.8%	.972
			SC 430 (hardtop convertible)	1,001	4.5%	N/A
		Light Truck		11,982	8.5%	N/A
			RX 330 (SUV)	8,227	7.3%	.851,2
			GX 470 (SUV)	2,930	9.6%	N/A
			LX 470	825	17.0%	N/A
1Based on data for 2 or fewer model years
2Includes data for preceding model number
Bold blue script indicates that the model was in March 2004's Hottest Ten, for all models of all manufacturers.
Italicized script indicates that the model was in CAA's most recently published Top 10 Vehicles, by ownership satisfaction.
Underscored script indicates that the model is a recent Consumer Reports Quick Pick.
A gold asterisk (*)indicates that the model is a CR 2004 Top Pick.

April 2004 sales of both the Scion xA and the Scion xB were up over those of March 2004, 15.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Toyota's new Scion division seeks to capture a greater proportion of the youth market by offering cars that are more suited to the tastes and needs of today's youth.

The Toyota Motor Corporation models showing the largest sales gains in April 2004 over April 2003 are the Toyota Prius, up 152.8%, the Toyota Sienna, up 135.7%, the Lexus LS 430, up 63.8%, the Lexus ES 330, up 21.9%, and the Lexus LX 470, up 17.0%. Sales of the Lexus LX 470 for the first four months of 2004 exceed those of the Toyota Land Cruiser, generally viewed as more Spartan, by 42.8%.

Honda, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .86, saw its April 2004 U.S. auto sales decline 2%. Honda's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are down less than 1%. April 2004 sales data for Subaru were unavailable.

Overall, it was a fourth good month of sales by the auto manufacturers of quality products.

At the other end of the spectrum, General Motors, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .30, had April 2004 sales that were up less than a half of one percent from those of April 2003. However, this small gain may hide a more dismal-to-dire demand for GM products. GM's April 2004 retail sales dropped 8% and only a 30% increase in fleet sales permitted GM to eke out a gain.¹ Ford is jettisoning fleet sales that are unprofitable or marginally profitable, and GM may be gathering up this jetsam, or flotsam. GM's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are up 3%.¹

Chrysler, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .31, saw its April 2004 U.S. auto sales rise 1%. Chrysler's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are up 3%.

Per an Associated Press article, both David Healy, a very prominent auto analyst with Burnham Securities, Inc., and John Casesa, an auto analyst with Merrill Lynch, predicted that GM's April 2004 sales gains would better both Ford's and Chrysler's due to GM's relatively large incentives²; however, bigger incentives by GM failed to pull in buyers for GM products. This leaves lot inventories for a number of GM products considerably in excess of the desired 60-day supply. Examples include a 235-day supply of the Buick Rainier, a 160-day supply of the Cadillac SRX, a 135-day supply of the Chevrolet Malibu, and a 125-day supply of the Cadillac Escalade.¹ The Wall Street Journal reports that the Cadillac Escalade sales were down 17.4% in April 2004.¹

Ford, with a 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average of .51, saw its April 2004 U.S. auto sales fall 5%. Ford's U.S. sales for the first four months of 2004 are down 3%.

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

The above year-to-date market shares seem likely to be the final market shares for all of 2004. Although GM's sales appear to be more tenuous, poor information acquisition skills at the lower end of the U.S. population, combined with a high level of recidivistic behavior, should permit GM to hold on to its current market share of .27 for the balance of the year.

In the niche markets, Porsche April sales rose 15%, BMW sales rose 11%, and Mercedes-Benz sales rose 3%. The rotation out of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2000 Reliability Percentranks of .03, .15, and .02, resumed; sales fell 12%.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for April 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2004, page D7, "Automobile Sales Statistics" and Toyota's market share reported in "Fat Discounts Barely Lift GM Sales," Detroit News, at www.detnews.com/2004/autosinsider/0405/05/b01-143322.htm. General Motors claimed that a computer failure prevented it from timely delivering April 2004 auto sales; this left the Wall Street Journal's table incomplete. To compute market shares, site manager used Toyota's year-to-date market share given in the Detroit News article and the data given in the Journal's table.

Source for detailed Toyota sales data: "Toyota Reports Eighth Consecutive Best-Ever April Sales," May 3, 2004, at http://www.pressroom.toyota.com/photo_library/display_release.html?id=20040503

Source for Reliability Percentrank averages: AOI's Table I-MVRP

Source for March 2004's Hottest Ten: "Hot Off the Lot," Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2004, p. D2

Sources for Consumer Reports Quick Picks: Consumer Reports, February 2004, p. 49 and Consumer Reports, May 2004, p. 53

Source for CR Top Picks: Consumer Reports, April 2004, p. 9

¹"GM's April Sales Were Lackluster; U.S. Total Is Flat," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2004, pp. A3,A6

²"U.S. Auto Sales Likely Rose in April," Associated Press, May 1, 2004, accessible at Yahoo! News