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CR's April 2004 Reliability Tables Indicate Some Changes in Short Term Reliability, but Infiniti, Honda, Toyota, Lexus, and Acura Remain Dominant by this Measure As Well
Auto on Info March 2004
CR's April 2004 Reliability Tables Indicate Some Changes in Short Term Reliability, but Infiniti, Honda, Toyota, Lexus, and Acura Remain Dominant by this Measure As Well
To ascertain what changes may have occurred in the short term reliability of each major motor vehicle line sold in the U.S., the following was done:
1. The auto reliability tables of the April 2004 issue of Consumer Reports were used to:
a. Tally, for each motor vehicle line, the number of above average reliability checks at the bottom of the three right-most reliability columns of each motor vehicle model within the line,
b. Tally, for each motor vehicle line, the number of below average x's at the bottom of the three right-most columns,
c. Subtract, for each motor vehicle line, the latter tally from the former and then divide this value by the total number of such right-most columns providing reliability statistics for all models within the line.
This gives a first three-year reliability index value for each motor vehicle line between +1.00, representing high reliability, and -1.00, representing low reliability.
2. The auto reliability tables of the April 2003 issue of Consumer Reports were used to do the same computation.
3. For each line, the value of paragraph 2 was then subtracted from the value of paragraph 1 to give that line's change in short term - first three-year - reliability.
Rebadges were excluded in the computations, unless the rebadge lowered the line's average, as did Honda's Passport.
The following table gives the results for each line that had at least four columns - four model-years - of first three-year reliability statistics in the April 2004 issue.
Motor Vehicle Line First Three-Year Reliability Index Value, per the April 2004 Issue of Consumer Reports First Three-Year Reliability Index Value, per the April 2003 Issue of Consumer Reports Change in the First Three-Year Reliability Index Value Infiniti 1.00 .67* +.33 Honda .89 .63 +.26 Toyota .89 .93 -.04 Lexus .87 .71 +.16 Acura .69 .82 -.13 Mazda .63 .40 +.23 Buick .58 .15 +.43 Nissan .55 .53 +.02 Subaru .33 .75 -.42 Saturn .25 0.00 +.25 Saab .17 1.00* -.83 Hyundai .09 .30 -.21 BMW .07 -.18 +.25 Lincoln 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ford -.02 -.32 +.30 Chrysler -.06 -.14 +.08 Volvo -.15 -.33 +.18 Dodge -.19 -.56 +.37 Mitsubishi -.20 -.25* +.05 Oldsmobile -.20 -.54 +.34 Jeep -.22 -.88 +.66 Pontiac -.22 -.59 +.37 Chevrolet -.26 -.42 +.16 Mercury -.33 -.23 -.10 Audi -.55 -.50 -.05 Volkswagen -.60 -.43 -.17 Mercedes-Benz -.60 -.62 +.02 Cadillac -.88 -.86 -.02 GMC -.88 -.50 -.38 Jaguar -1.00* -1.00* 0.00 *Short term reliability index value is based on four or fewer model-years of data. From the table, Jeep had the biggest improvement in the first three-year reliability index , +.66, but its current first three-year reliability index value remains very low, -.22. Buick had the second highest increase in its initial three-year reliability index value, +.43; this increase gave it a current initial three-year reliability index value that is the seventh highest and is above Nissan's. Saab's early reliability index value plunge of -.83 may not be reflective of its true change, as last year's index value was based on only four model-years.
Although the changes in short term reliability index values may generally indicate shifts in early reliability, in many instances it may merely be statistical fluctuation. In other instances, new models played a significant role in raising or lowering a line's overall early reliability, a phenomenon that may be short-lived.
With regard to the Buick line, it seems safe to say that the line's short term reliability has had a bump up; however, it still remains to be seen whether its post-2000 models will have an improvement in the fourth and fifth years after manufacture.
More generally, an interesting question is whether this volatility in short term reliability will have a significant, or any, effect on medium term and longer term reliability.
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