Bookmarking Auto on Info pages Home or Site Layout or Site Index or Quick Jumps or Search Engine Directory or The Mart Auto News, Analysis and EditorialIn the U.S. in January 2004, Toyota and Nissan Auto Sales Soar; Ford Sales Continue to Free-Fall

 

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Auto on Info  February 2004

In the U.S. in January 2004, Toyota and Nissan Auto Sales Soar; Ford Sales Continue to Free-Fall

Nissan increased its U.S. auto sales by 26% in January 2004. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 65%; its car sales rose a more modest 8%. In January 2004, Nissan had 6% of the U.S. vehicle market.

Toyota's January 2004 sales rose 16%. Its truck sales rose 27% and its car sales rose 6%. In January 2004, Toyota had a U.S. vehicle market share of 13%, a two percentage point leap over 2003.

Sales of Toyota's luxury line, Lexus, were up 15%.1

Honda's January 2004 sales fell 4% and Subaru's sales fell 3%; however, Mazda's sales rose 20%. Mazda's 1995-1999 Reliability Percentrank average is .72, the fifth highest after Toyota, Honda, Subaru, and Nissan.

In short, it was a good month for the manufacturers of high reliability vehicles. For much of the rest, it was not.

Sales for the Big Three, as a group, were off. General Motors sales fell 2% and Ford sales fell 10%, but Chrysler sales rose 9%. The car sales for each of GM, Ford, and Chrysler plunged 18%. The Washington Post reported that Buick, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, and Saturn all showed big declines.2

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

Table I: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2003, Estimates of Natural Market Shares, Distances to Natural Market Shares, and Distances Traversed from 1993

Manu- facturer

1993

1995 1997 1999 2001  2003 YTD 2004 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993
Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .13 .23 .10 .06
Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .08 .14 .06 .03
Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .06 .16 .10 N/A
Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02 .02** .00** N/A
GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .26 .04 -.22 -.08
Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .19 .19 .07 -.12 -.07
Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .13 .00 -.13 -.02
*The Estimate of Natural Market Share is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.
**Note that Hyundai's Reliability Percentrank Average has increased considerably in the past 12 years (see Hyundai Reliability Percentranks) and its market share is growing in many markets; consequently, the above estimate of natural market share for Hyundai may not be suitable.

In the Hyundai-General Motors war, Hyundai lost ground to General Motors with a 16% January 2004 decline in U.S. auto sales versus GM's 2% drop.

In the niche markets, Porsche sales rose 59%, BMW sales plunged 22%, and Mercedes-Benz sales fell 7%. The continued rotation out of Mercedes' U.S. made M-Class SUV, with its abysmal 1998-2000 Reliability Percentranks of .03, .15, and .02, accounted for much of the loss.

1"Auto Sales Up in January, But Some Left Out in the Cold," USA Today, accessible at Yahoo! News

2"U.S. Sales Slump for GM, Ford," http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A10821-2004Feb3?language=printer

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for January 2004 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2004, page A9, "Automobile Sales Statistics." Note that although the footnote to the table "Automobile Sales Statistics" states, "Percentage change comparisons are based on the daily selling rate in each period," in fact, they are not. However, the percentage changes appearing in this article are so based and are computed using the following formula:

(((Jan 2004 sales)/((Jan 2003 sales)/(25/26)))-1) x 100%.

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