Auto on Info  January 2004

In the U.S. in December 2003, Toyota and Nissan Auto Sales Roll On; Ford's U.S. 2003 Auto Market Share Drops to .19

Nissan increased its U.S. auto sales by 12% in December 2003. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 53%; sales of domestically produced trucks rose 61% and those of imported trucks rose 40%.

Toyota's December 2003 sales rose a more modest 4%; its truck sales rose 17%.

Honda's December 2003 sales fell 3% and Subaru's sales fell by an estimated 14%.

The Big Three had a rather bad month. General Motors sales fell 9% (10% by Associated Press), Ford sales fell 8%, and Chrysler sales rose 2%.

For all of 2003, products by the Top Four, by reliability, sold well in the U.S. Honda's auto sales rose 8%, Nissan's sales rose 7 1/2 %, Toyota's sales rose 6%, and Subaru's sales rose 2 1/2 %. In contrast, the Big Three crept closer to their natural market shares. Ford sales fell 4 1/2 %, Chrysler's sales fell 3 1/2 %, and General Motors' sales fell 2%.

Ford's drop in 2003 U.S. auto sales gave it a U.S. market share of .19, down from .21 in 2002.

The U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

In the Hyundai-General Motors war, Hyundai dealt a huge blow to General Motors with a 31% December 2003 increase in U.S. auto sales versus GM's 9% drop. For the full year, Hyundai had a gain of 7% versus a General Motors loss of 2%.

Porsche had excellent U.S. auto sales growth in 2003, +33%. Volvo did well in the U.S. in 2003 as well, with a 22% gain in sales; however, site manager anticipates, given Volvo's current Reliability Percentrank averages, that the rotation into Volvo products will turn into a rotation out within 3 years. 

Rotation out appears to have already hit Mercedes' U.S. built M-Class sport utility vehicle. This model, with a 1998 Reliability Percentrank of .03, a 1999 Reliability Percentrank of .15, and an early 2000 Reliability Percentrank of .02, had a sales drop of 24% in 2003.

For 2004, there should be little change in U.S. market shares. Hyundai should increase its U.S. market share to .03. Ford's market share will likely continue its fall, but less precipitously, with a decline of about .01. General Motors' market share should drop by no more than .01, as this company must spin its wheels more before it and consumers grow tired enough for its market share to drop sharply. Neither Toyota nor Honda nor Nissan should increase its fractional share in 2004, to the nearest one-hundredth, as Big Three sales losses will likely be distributed (a) some among other auto manufacturers and (b) equally enough among these three auto manufacturers, all with some products having high Reliability Grades and Percentranks, to deny any one of them a market share gain sufficient to raise its market share by .01.

In short, in 2004, the Big Three should suffer no comeuppance for the comparatively low reliability and durability of their products and the drift by the Big Three to their natural market shares should be no faster than that of the past couple of years. However, 2005 may present quite a different story.

Note: Big Three sales and market shares do not include sales of European lines - Mercedes-Benz, Saab, Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover.

Source for December 2003 and calendar year 2003 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2004, page A13, "Automobile Sales Statistics." As there was a sharp discrepancy between December 2003 sales changes reported by the Journal and those reported by the Associated Press, site manager independently calculated the monthly sales changes using the following formula: 

(((Dec 2003 sales)/((Dec 2002 sales)/(25/26)))-1) x 100%.

These gave results that were substantially in conformity with those reported by the Associated Press.