Auto on Info  December 2003

In the U.S. in November 2003, Nissan Auto Sales Roll on with Another Double Digit Gain

Nissan increased its U.S. auto sales by 11% in November 2003, per the Wall Street Journal. Its truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales rose 57%; sales of domestically produced trucks rose 39% and those of imported trucks soared nearly 98%.

Toyota sales rose a more modest 8%. Its sales of domestically produced trucks rose 30% and imported trucks 22%.

Honda had another modest decline of about 2%. Subaru sales fell 5%. Nonetheless, both Honda and Subaru are showing gains in year-to-date sales.

Among the niche players, Porsche sales rose 55% and BMW sales rose 6%. Mercedes sales fell 6%; its sales of the U.S. made M-Class SUV dropped 25%. The M-Class is on the Worst Car List, by Reliability Percentrank, for model years 1998, 1999, and 2000.

Among the Big Three, Chrysler sales fell about 1% and Ford sales fell about 3%, but General Motors showed it still had some kick in it with a sales gain of about 17%. All three of the Big Three are showing losses in year-to-date sales.

General Motors' Saturn sales continued to fall. USA Today, in an article entitled "Is Beaten-up Saturn GM's Falling Star?", reported that November sales were down 13.5%. Art Spinella of CNW Marketing/Research was quoted as saying, "There is no rational reason for GM to hang onto Saturn." The early 2000 Reliability Percentrank average for Saturn is .21, less than half the Percentrank of any previous year. GM no longer uses the marketing line: "A different kind of company. A different kind of car."

U.S. market shares, historical and year-to-date, together with natural market share estimates, are given in the table below.

In the Hyundai-General Motors war, General Motors dealt a counter blow with its 17% gain compared to Hyundai's 6% gain.

For 2004, the Big Three brawl may turn interesting. For the past two years, General Motors has been clobbering Ford and Chrysler with discounts made possible by earlier cost cutting. During this period, General Motors avoided market share loss, while Ford and Chrysler were hit pretty hard, as the above table shows. However, during these two past years, Ford and Chrysler have been cutting costs and may now be in a position to clobber back. Possibly helping Ford and Chrysler will be a laundry basket of new products. And if in the low end of the spectrum, vehicle reliability counts not for naught, Ford and Chrysler would seem to have an additional advantage, as the below chart points:

Note: Big Three sales do not include sales of European lines.

Source for November 2003 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2003, page A6, "Automobile Sales Statistics." It should be noted that the sales percentage changes in AP's "November 2003 U.S. Auto Sales" were across the board higher - those up were up more and those down were down less - than those in the Journal.