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Auto on Info  October 2003

In the  U.S. in September 2003, Nissan Auto Sales Soared

Nissan's U.S. motor vehicle sales soared 24.9% in September 2003; its imported truck - SUV, minivan, and pickup - sales skyrocketed 79.5%.

Toyota's U.S. sales also experienced double digit gains in September; its U.S. motor vehicle sales rose 15.3% and its imported truck sales rose 33.6%. Toyota's increase in unit sales of imported trucks far exceeded those of Nissan, as last year's unit sales were at a much higher level.

Honda experienced a more modest increase in vehicle sales; its overall sales rose 5.3%, primarily because its truck sales rose 33.5%.

Consumers seemed to have dealt a punishing blow to other Japanese manufacturers of lesser reliability stature. Mazda's sales fell 15.2%, Mitsubishi's 30.4%, Isuzu's 40.1%, and Suzuki's 17.6%.

General Motors entirely avoided a punitive response from its customers; its sales rose 17%. Ford's sales rose 3.8% and Chrysler's sales fell 11.1%. Ford's sales were sufficient to bring its year-to-date market share back to .20. All figures exclude sales of European subsidiary nameplates.

GM's strong showing this month suggests that it may be in the position of being able to clobber Ford and Chrysler to death with discounts and higher efficiency. If this were achieved, it seems almost certain that GM would initially pick up at least 1/3 of the market share of Ford and Chrysler - more than sufficient to ensure a 20-year gradual transition to the AOI estimate of its natural market share of .04.

The following table provides historical, year-to-date, and estimated natural market shares for some of the leading auto manufacturers.

Table I: Fractional Shares of the U.S. New Passenger Vehicle Market for the Reliable Two, Nissan, Hyundai, and the Big Three for Years 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, and 2001 and Year-to-Date 2003 Shares through September 30th, Estimate of Natural Market Share, Distance to Natural Market Share, and Distance Traversed from 1993

Manufacturer

1993

1995 1997 1999 2001 Y-T-D 2003 Estimate of Natural Market Share* Remaining Distance to Natural Market Share Distance Traversed from 1993
Toyota .07 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .23 .12 .04
Honda .05 .05 .06 .06 .07 .08 .14 .06 .03
Nissan N/A N/A N/A N/A .04 .05 .16 .09 N/A
Hyundai N/A N/A N/A N/A .02 .02 .02** .00** N/A
GM .34 .33 .31 .29 .28 .28 .04 -.24 -.06
Ford .26 .26 .25 .24 .23 .20 .07 -.13 -.06
Chrysler .15 .15 .15 .16 .16 .13 .00 -.13 -.02
*The Estimate of Natural Market Share is the fractional share of new registrations of passenger vehicles in New Zealand in 1996. New Zealand was chosen in order to remove from the decision-making process, or at least reduce the influence of, such factors as old name recognition, repetitive buying patterns, and normatively motivated attitudes. The intent was to obtain an estimate as to what share each manufacturer would be able to attain in an environment of rational decision-making, as best each individual is able. The year 1996 was chosen as it is the most recent year in American Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1998 edition of World Motor Vehicle Facts.
**Note that Hyundai's Reliability Percentrank Average has increased considerably in the past 12 years (see Hyundai Reliability Percentranks) and its market share is growing in many markets; consequently, the above estimate of natural market share for Hyundai may not be suitable.

In the Hyundai-General Motors war, GM struck a counter blow with a 17% sales increase versus a more modest 7% sales increase by Hyundai.

BMW sales rose 2% in September 2003; Mercedes-Benz sales fell 1%.

Source for September 2003 auto manufacturer sales data: Wall Street Journal, page B12, "Automobile Sales Statistics." Note: A web page entitled "September 2003 U.S. Auto Sales By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS" on nytimes.com (The New York Times website) reported somewhat smaller sales increases by those manufacturers reporting increased sales; site manager deemed the Wall Street Journal likely the more accurate source.

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